We've done it this way too previously. But some people don't get it anyway.
/Gustav GameOfDeath2 skrev: >All this simulation isn't very much in the way of proof, is it? >It's much quicker (and more formal and not empirical) to use >conditional probability to get the result. > >Initially, you select the correct door with probability 1/3. >If you are correct, switching is guaranteed to fail, sticking is >guaranteed to win. >If you are incorrect, switching is guaranteed to succeed, sticking is >guaranteed to fail. > >(Heuristically, in the less probable case switching fails and in the >more probable case switching succeeds. We can be more formal as >follows:) > >P(Win if switch) >=P(Win if switch|first guess is correct)*P(first guess is correct)+P >(Win if switch|first guess is incorrect)*P(first guess is incorrect) >=0*1/3+1*2/3=2/3. > >P(Win if stick) >=P(Win if stick|first guess is correct))*P(first guess is correct)+P >(Win if stick|first guess is incorrect)*P(first guess is incorrect) >=1*1/3+0*2/3=1/3. > > > > > > > > >Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > >__________ NOD32 1.1344 (20051229) Information __________ > >This message was checked by NOD32 antivirus system. >http://www.nod32.com > > > > > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/MXMplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/speedsolvingrubikscube/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
