> Sorry, but I haven't given any excuses.
Oh, but you have. When shown the results of computer simulations
where a computer was the contestant, your response was: That doesn't
apply since computers use random number generators, besides, humans
have ESP. When the games have a human player, your response was:
that doesn't apply since you only get to play once in the real game.
When asked to share your code, you did not. When asked what you
thought the probabilities were if they were not 1/3 and 2/3, you
never answered. Tyson invited you to play a game for real (not a
simulation), you did not accept.
> I was
> challenged to "play the game" 100 times, even though the problem
> revolves around a single try.
I think you're displaying a common misconception involving
probabilities (I think it's fairly common, anyway), which is
something like "probabilities don't apply when a game is played only
once".
Consider radioactive decay: I don't know whether a radioactive atom
will decay in a given amount of time, I only know the probability
that it will. But when I have a sample of this radioactive stuff, I
can see the probabilities manifest themselves. I can make
predictions like "In 1 minute, x% of the sample will remain" or "in
1 minute, this particular atom will remain with probability p", but
not "in 1 minute, this particular atom will (or will not) decay"
Likewise, playing only one game doesn't tell anybody anything.
Consider Game A: I pick a number from 1 to 5, you win if you guess
it. Game B: I pick a number from 1 to 5, but you get 3 guesses
instead. Let's say you play both games *once* and you win Game A and
lose Game B. Can I conclude that Game A was easier to win than B???
But in playing many games, we can better see the effects of
probabilities. That was our reasoning when we presented you with the
computer simulations (after you rejected the mathematical
explanation). It's not that we don't understand how the game is
played.
If someone's responses to mathematical explanations and game
simulations involved ESP and psychic abilities, what would you do
(if you were us)?
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