<*>[Attachment(s) from Ian Shrier, Dr. included below]

Hi

A while ago, there was a discussion on this listserv about publication bias and 
peer review. An idea was being bounced around to have protocols accepted, and 
then the article would be accepted as is, provided it adhered to the protocol. 
Someone mentioned that Lancet had considered doing this.

Personally, I think that solution would require a lot of extra work, and there 
are often very good reasons for protocol deviation. The solution would 
sometimes end up causing problems and I'm concerned the cure might be worse 
than the disease.

I had a different idea developed a few years ago, that I thought was novel. One 
presents the study with just intro, methods, and results, but the results have 
all the data removed (figures are labelled and tables have rows and columns, 
etc). This way, one has all the necessary items to evaluate relevance, 
validity, and presentation of data. The only remaining issue is writing up of 
results, and the nature of the discussion. But even if the discussion is 
slanted, reviewers could insist on the authors presenting alternate viewpoints. 
I also believe I have solutions that would mean minimal extra work for authors, 
reviewers and editors.

I thought this was incredibly novel and was very proud of myself, and have been 
mentioning this to several key players to generate interest.

And then Doug Altman just responded to my email by sending me a reference from 
1987 (Newcombe RG. Towards a reduction in publication bias. BMJ 1987; 295: 
656-659)! The 1987 reference basically proposes the idea of accepting 
manuscripts based on protocols (the idea promoted in the listserv emails)....it 
also illustrates all the problems with p-values, why confidence intervals 
should replace p-values, etc. 

And then, there was a reference to someone who previously studied peer-review 
of "incomplete manuscripts".... my novel idea (I thought) .... which was 
published in 1977!!!! (Mahoney MJ. Publication Prejudices: An Experimental 
Study of Confirmatory Bias in the Peer Review System. Cognitive Therapy and 
Research 1977; 1(2):161-175)

Plus ça change, plus ça reste pareil.  (the more things change, the more they 
stay the same)

PS: I haven't given up on my idea, but am once again humbled

Ian Shrier




<*>Attachment(s) from Ian Shrier, Dr.:


<*> 2 of 2 File(s) 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/sportscience/attachments/folder/2053130404/item/list
 
  <*> newcombe pubbias BMJ87.pdf
  <*> mahoney.pdf

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