TSR NIFTY UPDATES- Week beginning 05.01.09 -Visit www.Niftyviews.com<http://niftyviews.blogspot.com/2009/01/tsr-nifty-updates-week-beginning-050109.html> www.Niftyviews.com <http://niftyviews.blogspot.com/%20> Your feedback is important to me :-). Please share your comments.
Dear Friends, - A majority of the analysts in the recently concluded Cnbc Tv18 Poll believed that an immediate market bottom is in place and in 2009 we are unlikely to break 2253. I believe one can trust the outcome of the poll. Wait a minute; before one becomes overtly bullish we closed yesterday 35.25% above October27th lows· I have always maintained that bear market teaches discipline and timing. A good trader is always tested in a bear run as compared to a Bull move. Below is the excerpt from one of my posts on Niftyviews for week starting 27.10.08. - " For nifty I still maintain that 25XX for me is a Bottom in Nifty. Technically we might break the same on Monday. But I will try and start deploying my remaining cash now as the next big trend to play out will be on upside. Kindly be cautious, as I might be terribly wrong. I don't like averaging portfolio or stocks. If I add some stocks it will be only because I like the story over a period of time. I wont buy any of the downtrodden stocks like Unitech, Dlf or Parasvanth, the primary reason being that I am still negative on them. The only reason why I will start buying now is because the smart money is now moving in and not moving out. I might be wrong here but I am sure I wont be terribly wrong here." Source http://niftyviews.blogspot.com/2008/10/tsr-nifty-updates-week-begining-271008.html - As of now I am in the camp, which believes that the bottom for 2009 is in place. I have my own reasons that the bottom wont be broken unless we see worse macro economic situation for a continued time horizon going forward. I have mentioned it a number of times before that, I was surprised by the intensity of the fall below 3500.We made a bottom of 2253 much below anyone sane had anticipated. At the same time Nifty is now hovering at 3046 levels. There are reasons why I believe that the conditions that lead to the fall have improved. There is a belief that the worst of Sub prime crisis is behind us. In India the liquidity problem has improved dramatically. With liquidity I mean the MIBOR has eased considerably from 20% points to 5% yesterday. - I wont be positional short in this market unless the pivots are broken. I will be truthful with my analysis; Nifty has not behaved like a classical bear market from 2505 to 3111 odd levels. The answer to the question might lie in the fact that this was the worst bear market in recent decades. So why should one have a problem if the rally is not a classical bear market rally. When one under performs in downside, It can obviously outperform in Upside. - Companies have a precarious habit. Some of them always need capital to grow, as there internal resources are insufficient to meet the scale of their business. Most of these companies have been butchered in the recent mayhem. I have noticed something peculiar, which I ought to share. Etc Networks and Titan industry have recently raised funds via private placement of debentures. I believe this might be one of the major sources of funding to many more companies in future. It might be one of the major reasons for the credit crunch to ease. - I am not sure where we are heading as of now. As always two schools of thoughts emerge. One suggests a range bound trading in the broad 2910-3250 zone. The other suggests an upward breakout of the converging triangle with a target above 3500. I am not Bullish on Nifty till Unitech, Suzlon and Reliance power is a component in Nifty. At the same time one needs to have a cautious stand going forward. - There is too much hue and cry being made for the small cap rally. Even Murphy will agree, with a 90%+ erosion from all time Highs in a year. Small cap rally was always due. I was never a fan of penny chaps and I wont ever be one.There is immense value in some Midcap/Largecap stocks even at cmp. But then I have always looked beyond the large cap stocks to invest in where the companies are like perpetual bonds growing year after year. - I had shared one investment idea recently on Gillander Arbuthnot and company. I like the 191 years old Kolkata based company as it is just like a Sovereign Government Bond with a High dividend yield and an added appreciation clause. The company was listed in Kolkata stock exchange and got listed in March 2006 in BSE. It is a part of Gd kothari (Nephew of G.D Birla.)Group and has four basic business segments namely:- Tea, rental income of Gillander House, Textiles and engineering division. One can get more details at http://brokersreports.blogspot.com/2009/01/gillander-arbuthnot-and-company-report.html . Do note I have investments in the equity of the company that are long term in nature. - Coming to Nifty we have closed above 20dma and 50dma post September 09,2008.We need a three day closing above the same levels to see next round of short covering. I believe midcaps/largecaps and not small caps might lead the next round of rally, if any. Above 3161-3241 next cluster of resistance is at 3551 odd zones. One more factor worth watching out is the IIP numbers along with the results season. Have a great trading week. - TSR is increasing service charges of Cash segment from 6th January 2008.All subscriptions made prior to 6th January will be at old rates. Nifty support-2912,3020 ( BELOW 3020 WILL TAKE SMALL SHORTS WITH SL AT 3055) Nifty resistance-3113( old resistance zone),3245 *WEEKLY CALLS UPDATES:** Short term conviction buy ( Holding period two months.) Buy kotak bank 50% at cmp rest at 310 target 410-465. sl at 259.BOOKED AT 370 **SHORT BIOCON AT 118-120 (FUTS CLOSING PRICE-118.85) TGT - 115-110 SL - 123.50 Rank three trade TARGETS HIT SHORT HPCL BELOW 265 (FUTS CLOSING PRICE-272.50) TGT - 258-251 SL - 272 NOT ACTIVATED. SHORT IRBINFRA AT 130-131 (FUTS CLOSING PRICE-130.95) TGT - 124-121 SL - 135.20 SL TAKEN **WEEKLY CALLS :* * Be a TSR premium delivery client for as low as 550 per month on annual subscriptions* Get free updates on your mobile phone. SMS- JOIN Sresearchers to 567673434.for our market updates We are giving a free trial to register FOR FREE TRIAL using your phone, SMS 'ON SRESEARCHERS' to 09870807070. * Refer http://docs.google.com/View?docid=dkh7xb6_4dff7hx** *Portfolio advisory under Comeback plan with a Model portfolio. - Model portfolio of 1 lakh rupees mailed 21 days ago to premium weekly clients as a comeback plan is giving a decent return of 20%.We shall review the portfolio every fortnight.Target for model portfolio is an aggressive 60% returns in an year.If you are interested in the comeback plan mail us at [email protected] If you want this newsletter to be delivered in your mailbox - Please subscribe http://groups.google.com/group/STOCKRESEARCHER/subscribe<http://groups.google.com/group/STOCKRESEARCHER/subscribe> If You like the NiftyViews Blog kindly let others know about the same.invite people using http://groups.google.com/group/STOCKRESEARCHER/members_invite<http://groups.google.com/group/STOCKRESEARCHER/members_invite> ** INTRADAY CALLS VISIT HERE <http://stockrumours.blogspot.com/> <http://stockrumours.blogspot.com/>http://stockrumours.blogspot.com/ email to [email protected] for payment details of our premium membership HAVE A GREAT TRADING DAY VINAYAK TEAM STOCKRESEARCHERS Your feedback is important to me :-). Please share your comments. Vinayak Admin T.S.R http://www.niftyviews.com/ -- For All Your Stock Markets query and solutions Visit http://niftyviews.com/ Join our google group http://groups.google.com/group/STOCKRESEARCHER/subscribe --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ -- For Anything related with Stock market be Online at http://www.niftyviews.com/ Get free updates on your mobile phone. SMS- JOIN SRESEARCHERS to 567678for our market updates You received this message because you are subscribed to Google Group "STOCKRESEARCHER" group. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected] To unsubscribe email [email protected] for more info visit http://groups.google.com/group/STOCKRESEARCHER?hl=en-GB . This is Not a Spam Mail. -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
