-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Bank Nifty (July): Next Up Movement Only Above 19300-500, Or
Else, We Could See Again 18500-040, Parliamentary Logjam May Drag
Date: Tue, 21 Jul 2015 08:34:39 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
To: undisclosed-recipients:;
Technically, BNF (LTP: 19088) has immediate support of 19018-18839* &
sustain below that, it may fall 18711-18545 and 18369-18254-18040-17800
zone in the near term under bear case scenario.
On the upside, BNF has to sustain over 19130-180 for an immediate target
of 19250-19300* and only sustaining over that, it may scale 19480-505*.
Consecutive closing only above 19505, it may target
19650-19965-20450-20720-20935 area under bullish market scenario.
In brief, sustaining above 19500, BNF might target 20720-20935 & failure
of that it may be dragged to 18500-18000-17800-17500 zone again.
Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional)
BNF-JULY LTP 19088
SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
Strong > 19300 19405-480* 19505*-650 19833-965 20120-450
20600-720 <19250
Weak < 19250 19180-130* 19044-018 18941-839* 18750-711
18657-545 >19300
Parliament session will start from today and we may see various
political drama and logjam in both the houses amid so much political
controversy. Recent history shows that during parliament session, market
under performed most of the times. Although, there is a great chance
that GST will be passed this time at any cost, various dissent notes are
also there (such as 1% mfg tax, keeping Alcohol,Tobacco & Petro Products
out of ambit of GST and the proposed overall revenue neutral high rate
@20% ??). As par reports, the abnormal high rate of GST may cast
"service inflation" in our economy and there are many other flaws in it.
Nevertheless, passage of GST bill is important this time & it will
translate a change of sentiment by our investors towards India. There is
ample liquidity in the global financial system right now, thanks to
"24/7 printing machine" and its up to India to take it by making
necessary reforms, so that FDI will pour in with confidence.
Land bill may not be passed this time & we may see indirect way to push
it through states in the coming days. Also, land bill in present form
may pose a political risk for NDA, ahead of state assembly elections.
Apart form Parliament, Q1 earnings, July monsoon trend & RBI tone will
dictate the market in the near term.
Globally, as Greece drama subsidizes to some extent for the time being
and China market is limping back to normal, all eyes is on Fed liftoff.
As par latest survey, 80% economists see a Sep rate hike & Fed Fund Rate
indicates a 40% probability of that right now. But there will be many
caveats & eventually in reality, Fed may employ its continuous "wait &
watch" policy till Dec'2015.
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hGhOhb0zORQ/Va2z8uaw-VI/AAAAAAAADco/zPskOTpQ28Q/s1600/BNF-20-07-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0IpOxoUtom8/Va2z-oLJrVI/AAAAAAAADcw/hyjapzMJRFU/s1600/BNF-FIBB-20-07-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Z3TLg7-x7D8/Va20BIiemEI/AAAAAAAADc4/MOKd2iLecRg/s1600/BNF-WK-20-07-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Qy_aRgvtyIw/Va20DY0pSsI/AAAAAAAADdA/6BvjADj9v3I/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-20-07-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-v8zOvzurU20/Va20FsbR3NI/AAAAAAAADdI/TQZApUDreOQ/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-MT-20-07-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-srXNnSeoA3I/Va20HiimggI/AAAAAAAADdQ/D8oiwGE1R3w/s1600/BNF-TL-20-07-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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