-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Bank Nifty Fut (Aug): Some Strength Only Abv 19150 for
19300-500, Otherwiese, Expect 18200 Again--Hawkish RBI & Parliament
Logjam May Drag
Date: Tue, 04 Aug 2015 08:53:36 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
To: undisclosed-recipients:;
_*Technical Analysis:*_
BNF (LTP: 18936) has to sustain over 19150 at least, for an immediate
target of 19300-19500*. Only consecutive closing above 19500, BNF may
target 19700-20120-20720 area in the near term (Bullish Case Scenario).
On the flip side, inability to sustain above 19150, might result selling
and we may see BNF drifting towards 18808-18648* zone. Sustain below
18648, BNF may further fall to 18507-18191-18000 territory by next few
trading sessions (Bear Case Scenario).
_*Technical Trading Levels(Positional):*_
BNF-Aug LTP 18936
SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
Strong > 19150 19300* 19500* 19700 19900 20120 <19100
Weak < 19100 19027 18866-08 18648* 18507 18340 18191
>19150
_*Some News Inputs:*_
BNF, specially PSU banks surged to 10 day high amid Govt's
recapitalization plan and upgrade of PSU Banks stocks by CLSA. Over the
years, PSBS account of stressed assets has grown sequentially and now
stands around Rs.4 lk cr because of visible slowdown in major sectors
like steel/metals, cement, power, infrastructure and also agriculture.
But, there is a "slight glimmer of hope" in the latest quarterly
earnings of major 5 PSBS so far as par CLSA and formation of new NPA is
gradually moderating. In other words, worst may be over as far formation
of new stressed assets for PSBS is concerned. But again, market will
keenly watch forthcoming Q1 result of SBI, which may be a real proxy for
corporate/SME India's debt profile, being the largest lender of our country.
Although there is some positive news on Land Bill as NDA is now ready to
pass the UPA version of it by rolling back its own critical amendments,
market may spooked by growing parliamentary logjams amid yesterday's
suspension of 25 INC MP(s). Also, the land bill is being diluted,
investors may find it hard to comply and there is also fear of GST
bill's fate hanging in doldrums, market might drag after RBI event
today. Clearly, NDA (Govt) gas to believe in its own reform agenda.
RBI meet is most likely to be a non-event today, but market will keenly
watch RBI's tone. Any unwanted hawkish tone by RBI (because of poor July
monsoon & consequent jump in some food articles/inflation probability
and Fed lift off phobia) might translate huge selling in BNF. On the
other side, any cut in CRR/SLR/MSF to boost liquidity in banks
(specially PSBS) may ignite the market. RBI will cut most probably in
Oct'15 for a "Dewali Gift" for us. Also, any step towards diminishing
veto power of RBI Gov by the Govt may be viewed as negative by the
FII(s) as too weak INR will hurt bond yields severely and we may see
massive selling both in our bond & stock markets. But the fact is that
India is now the only large economy in the world to have such high rate
of bank interest years after years and that is aiding the overall
economic slowdown here. Govt must think to formulate some different
policy to tackle inflation, specially food & wage. As par text book, RBI
Gov is right as the World's fastest growing economy (at least
theoretically ??) does not need rate cut any more, but again text book
economy and real economy is quite different.
And last of all, don't forget Greece---its still there and a long way to go.
_*Techno Funda Valuation Of Nifty By BG Metrics (Modified):*_
Current median valuation: 7850 (Ideal Buying Zone)
Projected fair valuation: 8700-9400-10350 (FY:16-18)
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN
VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA
CNXNIFTY 365 2440 20 7766.50 7867.60 7817.05
8262.82 8479.34
CNXNIFTY 450 2700 20 8623.54 8735.79 8679.66
8262.82 8479.34
CNXNIFTY 525 3000 20 9314.48 9435.73 9375.11
8262.82 8479.34
CNXNIFTY 635 3350 20 10243.92 10377.26
10310.59 8262.82 8479.34
_*Technical Charts:*_
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DUoBuXLDAys/VcApkxZCf-I/AAAAAAAADqM/JLBocT9GzRI/s1600/BNF-03-08-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GiVwCrC-GxY/VcApnJViqtI/AAAAAAAADqU/YhRGGvj3awA/s1600/BNF-FIBB-03-08-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AiHyvnB-Xk0/VcApoyosQzI/AAAAAAAADqc/WEaU1zYvu8I/s1600/BNF-WK-03-08-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Wm1gWC_lOvE/VcAp7j7PYVI/AAAAAAAADqk/RMZ9zxhNTr4/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-03-08-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0MmdJsuuczc/VcAp9TozdOI/AAAAAAAADqs/80Rs3sGPw1M/s1600/BNF-TL-03-08-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bYXLs_ZHwmc/VcAp_lqQfHI/AAAAAAAADq0/_I15XeGwWgg/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-MT-03-08-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
--
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