-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: S&P-500 (Fut): Down Nearly 8% From Cycle High, Below 1965,
Target May Be 1950-1930-1900 And It Need To Close Above 2015-2035 For
Any Sustainable Recovery
Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 10:19:44 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
To: undisclosed-recipients:;
_*Technical Analysis:*_
Looking at the chart, S&P (CMP:1969), has immediate support of 1965 and
sustain below that came 1950-1936-1930. Only consecutive closing below
1930, it could further fall to 1920-1900 & 1872-1850-1835 area in the
near term (worst bear case probability). Possibility below 1900 is
unlikely as of now.
On the bright side, sustaining above 1965-1972 zone, immediate target
might be around 1978-1985 & 1995-2008-2015. Only consecutive closing
above 2015, S&P could target 2035-2050-2070 in the short term and
sustaining above that it may further scale up to
2085-2101-2117-2126-2134 in the near term (bullish scenario).
_*Technical Trading Levels (Positional):*_
SL</>5 FROM SLR
S&P-500 CMP 1969
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR
Strong > 1972 1978-85 1995 2008-15* 2035-50 2070-85* 2101-17
2126-34 <1965
Weak < 1965 1950* 1936-30* 1920 1900 1872 1850
1835 >1972
_*Rationale:*_
As we all know, China jitters (Yuan devaluation & slow down fear), tepid
US growth amid strong USD & lack of confidence in Fed for liftoff and
Greece uncertainty (political situation) is taking a toll over global
market including S&P-500. Adding to the wound is crash in Crude (below
40$, may target 32$) and that is affecting energy companies & producers
nations very badly.
The market want sustainable US growth at any cost to lead the global
economy, but various confusing data and lack of inflation amid depressed
commodity prices and China slowdown are some of the factors, that may be
affecting confidence of Fed to raise rates.
Looking ahead, Fed may continue its "verbal intervention" tactics by
various dovish & hawkish FOMC members in a cyclical way to control the
already strong USD in a preferred range, rather than any actual action.
Going by the Fed Fund Rate, there is now around 35% probability of Sep
rate hike and all are looking for any real action in Dec'15. Again, that
said, in Dec'15, Fed might preferred to be in the side line and
ultimately the near 0.25% Fed rate will be the "New Normal" in the
changed world.
Another thing is that all the major four pillars (Fed/ECB/BOJ/PBOC) of
the global economy are closely co-ordinating with each other amid this
drama of "Currency War" and actually controlling the overall market
since "Lehman Crisis" period in 2006-08. So, do not expect the S&P to
correct more than 10% from the last cycle high of around 2134 and that
came around 1920. Thus 1900 in S&P should be the final base line for now.
In the last few years, whenever, S&P corrects around 5%, Fed intervened
through various dovish FOMC members (like Dudley) and they basically did
not allow the market to fall more than 5%. May be, S&P at 2134 is
creating some type of stock market bubble in the mind of Fed and that's
why they are looking for 10% correction this time, which is very healthy
for a "secular bull market".
Fed will preferred to be in dovish mode in the near term as a 1% strong
currency (USD), which is equivalent to 0.25% rate hike, has already
happened in the US economy.
_*Technical Charts:*_
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wuhYGjTTTZ0/Vdf8dk8b5qI/AAAAAAAADz0/wZBDBbyVj4s/s1600/S%2526P-21-08-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ipviSjXC4oc/Vdf8gK-xe_I/AAAAAAAADz8/lG2dmVsIaF8/s1600/S%2526P-FIBB-21-07-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2k2yU7l9eUU/Vdf8huXtyJI/AAAAAAAAD0E/5-6rxSZYy_I/s1600/S%2526P-WK-21-08-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-I5uXBs9BTL8/Vdf8kwsJm4I/AAAAAAAAD0M/viOFBAxBRRI/s1600/S%2526P-TL-LT-21-08-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qzVREXBWK1s/Vdf8memTH2I/AAAAAAAAD0U/x3zJcLQxaLs/s1600/S%2526P-Pattern-21-08-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dRuGZl0n1DE/Vdf8o9POyHI/AAAAAAAAD0c/UM6szKGUw0o/s1600/S%2526P-TL-LT-21-08-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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