-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Bank Nifty (Sep): Are We Heading For 18200 or 15500 Amid Fed's Attempt For The Greatest Monetary Experiment In History ?
Date:   Thu, 17 Sep 2015 09:30:17 +0530
From:   Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To:       asis...@gmail.com



*Trading Levels (Positional):*


BNF-Sep         LTP     16957   
        
        
        
        
        

        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
SL=+/-  25 POINTS       FROM SLR        
        
        
        
        
        

        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
                                                                
                        T1      T2      T3      T4      T5      SLR
Strong > 17050 17130-260* 17365-475 17540-660* 17791-955 18080-200 <17000
                                                                
Weak < 17000 16924-730* 16627-528 16300-210* 15980-917 15793-720 >17050


_*
*_ *Some Key Takeaways:*

The global market including Wall Street & Dalal Street are trading quite strong ahead of Fed without any fear and the risk trade is "on". It appears that the market has largely discounted the the following first two Fed scenarios:

 * *Fed holds with a hawkish commentary (Hawkish Hold):* Fed holds and
   kept alive about Oct/Dec'15 lift off idea. There is 70-80%
   probability for this.
 * *Fed holds with a dovish commentary (Dovish Hold)*: Fed holds and
   does not stress about any immediate hike, even in Dec'15. There is
   20% probability for this.
 * *Fed hikes by 0.25% with a dovish commentary (Dovish Hike)*: Fed
   lifts off by at least 0.25% or even by 0.50% and make it clear that
   there is no probability of imminent hike in 2016 and they will
   closely monitor the economic progress and may also take corrective
   steps.There is 10% probability for this.
 * *Fed hikes by 0.25% with a hawkish commentary (Hawkish Hike):* Fed
   lifts off by 0.25-0.50% with a hint that from 2016 on wards, there
   will be possibility of hike @0.25% in every Fed meeting until the
   Fed Fund Rate reaches 3.50-3.75% as par economic progress!! There is
   less than 10% probability (or zero chance) for this.

Overall, market may not react more than 3-5% on either side in any of the above first three probable Fed scenarios.

*Back to our market:*

 * *Hawkish Hold by Fed*: RBI may cut only 0.25% in Sep and will wait
   for   Fed in Dec'15.
 * *Dovish Hold by Fed*: RBI may cut by 0.50% in Sep!!
 * *Dovish Hike by Fed*: RBI may put on hold and will wait for Dec for
   further evaluation.In that case RBI may again raise the issue of
   late transmission of previous rate cuts by banks.If Fed hikes by
   even 0.25%, then there may be chain reactions among other central
   bankers and UK might be the 2-nd developed economy which can raise
   rate also. Others may soon follow for the interest rate differential
   and to prevent capital outflow.
 * *Hawkish Hike by Fed*:RBI may be forced to raise rate to prevent
   capital outflow simply for interest rate differential.

*Bottom line:*

As global market is already corrected recently quite a lot including India, *even for a dovish hike* by Fed we may not fall down more than 5% in the worst case scenario. On the contrary, dovish hike may be largely discounted by the market already and after some whipsaw reaction, market may stabilize or even rally, because by a confirmed Fed decision, a great deal of year long uncertainty will be removed and market will then concentrate on other factors.

In case of Dovish or even Hawkish hold be Fed tonight, there is a strong buzz that RBI may cut as early as tomorrow (by at least 0.25%) in an out of policy manner to give an appropriate rate cut "Gift" on the occasion of "Happy Ganesh Chaturthi" to the nation!!

*Technical Charts:*

<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2FIf_INma1g/Vfo1yFffyXI/AAAAAAAAEAg/-G8t0ne2EJY/s1600/BNF-WK-16-09-2015.png>

<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cr-PkxuR2Xc/Vfo10OjHQLI/AAAAAAAAEAo/lmnb6qMjJaY/s1600/BNF-FIBB-16-09-2015.png>

<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-oHYNfo6GID4/Vfo12hSYd0I/AAAAAAAAEAw/AUR5aBtvBU8/s1600/BNF-WK-MA-16-09-2015.png>

<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-seIgG5UqFec/Vfo16BOjrYI/AAAAAAAAEA4/SY59hMlPqeE/s1600/BNF-TL-16-09-2015.png>

<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6_mjzyQrdiM/Vfo18J1vxxI/AAAAAAAAEBA/NHvMvRZClEA/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-16-09-205.png>

<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-amtz1a1PG0w/Vfo1-zJ1RjI/AAAAAAAAEBI/5QSaoPzNnpM/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-LT-16-09-2015.png>

--
Thanks & Regards,

Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified



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