-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Hindustan Uniliver: Ahead Of Result
Date: Wed, 14 Oct 2015 08:34:08 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*Has To Sustain Over 835-850 For Target Of 900-950 In The Near Term*
Analysts are expecting PAT around Rs.1038 cr, up by 5% (YOY) & down by
2.5% (QOQ) with QEPS around 4.80
*
*
*CMP: 813*
*
*
*Buy on dips: 800-780*
*
*
*TGT: 835-850 (T+5)*
*
*
*TGT: 878-900-950 (6M)*
*
*
*TGT: 980-1035-1065 (12-24M)*
*TSL< 770*
Note: Consecutive closing below 770-760 zone for any reason, HUL may
fall up to 742-715-700-677-649-623 area, where it can be again
accumulated for investment purpose.
*Some Key Takeaways: *
Market is expecting tepid earning for HUL in Q2 due to higher taxation,
poor volume growth and steep price cuts in some of its key products
recently (soaps, detergents, shampoo). But lower input costs, thanks to
depressed commodity prices will be helpful for it to expand its
operating margin. However, higher spending in advertising & promotions
may partially offset the lower input costs (raw materials) and over all
the Q2FY16 result is expected to be subdued.
Management commentary for demand outlook may be vital for rural India,
considering the erratic rains this year. Although, for Q2, we may see
tepid rural growth, there may be modest uptick in urban demand due to
growing acceptance of its premium brands, specially in personal care
segment.
Looking ahead, HUL may benefit from expected demand recovery in rural &
semi urban area. It has excellent product innovations, pan India
marketing & distribution strength, strong recall brand along with
aggressive pricing & marketing strategy to stay ahead of competitors.
HUL is giving now more thrusts on personal care products as it
contributes almost 50% of its EBIT and is also planning to go big on
food & beverages business.
Recently, HUL also sold one of its subsidiary, Modern Bakery as part of
its strategy to exit non-core business.
Overall, for any result oriented volatility in HUL, investors may take
the opportunity to accumulate it for an ideal portfolio stock being a
proxy for rural & semi urban India.
*As par BG metrics & current market parameters:*
*Present median valuation of HUL may be around: 865(FY:15)*
*Projected fair valuations might be around: 905-950-1035 (FY:16-18)*
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) Low High Median
200-DEMA 10-DEMA
HINDUNILVR 19.95 17.21 45 868.77 854.83 861.80 840.73 813.97
HINDUNILVR 21.9 19.55 45 910.24 895.64 902.94 840.73 813.97
HINDUNILVR 24.35 22.25 45 959.81 944.41 952.11 840.73 813.97
HINDUNILVR 28.6 25.35 45 1040.20 1023.51 1031.86
840.73 813.97
*Analytical Charts:*
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jnsKR6Z-oyM/Vh3Dwi9D-kI/AAAAAAAAEVU/cymyOlY9iX8/s1600/HUL-13-10-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7X3EouwY8Ao/Vh3DymxccUI/AAAAAAAAEVc/UNNL_bW9g6w/s1600/HUL-FIBB-13-10-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EAu-TH9K2qc/Vh3D1c2J6GI/AAAAAAAAEVk/nEtoEBTZIIs/s1600/HUL-WK-13-10-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NURj2wQrDgk/Vh3D4KfOXYI/AAAAAAAAEVs/GrvldFkv81c/s1600/HUL-PATTERN-13-10-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YC5dorKrHpM/Vh3D7mwDcZI/AAAAAAAAEV0/jWPWGrWWfyc/s1600/HUL-TL-13-10-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WO20jFfYSxk/Vh3EAS0p1uI/AAAAAAAAEV8/7Kmbu58yR9I/s1600/HUL-PATTERN-LT-13-10-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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