-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Nifty Fut (Oct): Hope Of Chinese & Japanese Stimulus Or
Something Else ?
Date: Mon, 19 Oct 2015 07:45:24 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*At least two/three consecutive closing above 8250 is required for
8435-8675; *
*Otherwise Expect 8150-8000 zone again*
*
*
Trading Levels:
SGX NF: 8265 (CMP)
NSE NF: 8262 (LTP)
SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR
Intraday Swing Trader
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
Strong > 8290 8320-340 8380-405* 8435-515
8585-600 8625-675* <8270
Weak < 8270 8240-204 8150-105* 8059-8000
7977-910 7875-815 >8290
FOR Conservative Positional Trader
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
Strong > 8290 8340 8405* 8515 8600 8675* <8270
Weak < 8270 8204 8105* 8000 7910 7815 >8290
After a day of range bound trading, NF rallied smartly in the last one
hour on Friday amid hope of more China & Japan stimulus/QE.
China will publish its official GDP & IIP data on Monday morning and
street expectation is around 6.8% & 6% respectively. For GDP, although
6.5% may be acceptable by the Chinese officials, anything below 6.7%
will intensified call for more stimulus and we may see 0.50% rate cut by
PBOC shortly.
As par comments of China premier "As long as employment remains
adequate, people's income grows and the overall economic environment
continuously improves, GDP a little higher or lower than 7% is acceptable".
On Oct'30, there will be BOJ policy meetings and market will keenly
watch it for more monetary stimulus. stance as par recent comment of BOJ
that they are ready to do more QE, if economic condition so warranted.
In US, we can see some "Gov. Shut Down" drama in the coming days, which
may affect USD.
Back to home, we have RIL Q2 result which is undoubtedly above street
estimates and may also help to pop up the market. But, there will be
host of other results for different blue chips in this week and that's
may keep the market volatile.
FY-17 budget exercise already began; although its too early, one can
hope for a true "dream budget" this time.
Apart from ongoing Bihar election result (Nov-1'st Wk) and its likely
impact on key reform bill implementations/passage in RS, all eyes will
be on RBI's monetary policy on Nov also.
Although, there is virtually no hope for another rate cut by RBI this
time, some tweaking may happen in the form of CRR/SLR/MSF window to
boost up festival loan demand (another "Diwali Gift" to the nation even
before policy date ??) and to address the liquidity concern of the PSBS.
As par trade data on last Friday, India's export declined sharply which
may not be a good news for "Make In India" theme. Although other macros
including IIP may be an early indication of a nascent recovery, there is
a lot more which has to be done in reality.
Overall, technically NF need to sustain over 8250 zone for at least
two/three days for confirmation of further rally and in that scenario,
the present 3-rd wave (impulsive) in daily chart, may take us to an
extended target of around 8435 area before Bihar election result.
If Bihar election result is positive for BJP, then NF can scale up to
8675 by Dec'15.
**Note: Just now China's GDP came at 6.9% and IIP at 5.7% (over all
impact may be slightly positive to neutral as it undermines China slow
down story but also diminished instant rate cut/more stimulus by PBOC to
some extent.
*Analytical Charts:*
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-u3Y6iny3ktk/ViRNZ_pwG_I/AAAAAAAAEeI/gQGi0EnrY9M/s1600/NF-16-10-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LtEuMC9kRsA/ViRNbjBGe8I/AAAAAAAAEeQ/6VrNy6wFDFk/s1600/NF-FIBB-16-10-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-D2sJ_waOZUM/ViRNfKm87YI/AAAAAAAAEeY/pU_LrHW9Hh0/s1600/NF-MA-16-10-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-e5S4dOnCQkk/ViRNhjkLhnI/AAAAAAAAEeg/id3b5LUmIzg/s1600/NF-TL-16-10-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IDSwac_Brg4/ViRNjb810gI/AAAAAAAAEeo/IqEHg9huOr4/s1600/NF-PATTERN-16-10-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cewk9dlmZh0/ViRNoCeVvcI/AAAAAAAAEew/HYU5kREbBe8/s1600/NF-EW-16-10-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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