-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Market Mantra: Nifty Fut Update
Date: Thu, 29 Oct 2015 08:07:43 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*Fed is sounding more "hawkish" than the market thought---*
*Watch 8125-8090 as vital support zone for NF today---*
SGX NF: 8166 (CMP-OCT)
NSE NF: 8186 (LTP)
As par early morning indication, NSE NF may open around 8160-8180 zone
following volatile overnight US market (Dow Fut +1% from -0.5%) after
FOMC meetings and epic short squeeze in crude oil. Energy shares, IBM
and US budget deals (fear of "shut down" diminished to some extent).
As par latest FOMC statement, Fed seems to be more hawkish than market
previously thought as it brings out again some possibility of Dec "token
rate hike" and keep that event in "live" mode, of course with many caveats.
Fed removed the "global & economic restrains" part of the previous
statement from the latest one to make it look like they are not
"concerned" about global (China) slow down !!
Now, Fed Fund Rate Future is indicating an possibility of around 47% of
Dec rate hike from previous 34%.
Clearly, by this statement, Fed tried for some "balancing act" and to
counter the growing criticism about its lack of confidence for global
financial market despite reasonable US economic growth & progress.
Looking forward, all eyes will be on BOJ meeting tomorrow for any
expansion of QE in Japan and host of FOMC speakers including Yellen
herself from tomorrow till 4-th Nov.
Fed might not try to experiment with token rate hike (0.25-0.50%) till
March'16 and for that, apart from global market risk, they will take
excuses for US "lowflation" (no where around their target of 2%) and
tepid wage inflation. They will continue for verbal intervention rather
than any real action in the foreseeable future.
In any way, by yesterday's Fed statement, Draghi also got his initial
target for EURUSD below 1.10 land mark !!
Apart from this Fed "drama", our market will focus on the ongoing Bihar
election, Q2FY16 results and various reform initiatives (like more FDI
in PSBS, media as indicated yesterday), being taken by the Govt after
RBI did its job done.
Market may not move in a big way until Bihar election exit polls/actual
result.
*Technically, for Nifty (Oct Fut/Spot), 8125-8090 zone is vital and
sustain below that we may fall towards 8030-8000 area for the day.*
*On the upside, NF/NS need to sustain above at least 8190 for 8250-8300
target for the day.*
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KvfFZ7m5fG4/VjGB7UwAJAI/AAAAAAAAEo4/ALv3IeCRhVk/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-29-10-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5MbaCsMosHw/VjGB-canpvI/AAAAAAAAEpA/_erNv4TCAMg/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-29-10-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(NCFM-TA Certified)
--
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