If tomorrow NF open G/D below 7750 due to the ongoing Fed drama---then
buy on dips with SLR<7680 (my 2-nd level of NF support) might help---
On 12/11/2015 08:38 PM, Sayeeram Trikannad wrote:
SGX is down 7750
On 12-Nov-2015 8:35 pm, "Asis Ghosh" <asis...@gmail.com
<mailto:asis...@gmail.com>> wrote:
Expect it by Monday
From My Lava
On Nov 12, 2015 8:29 PM, "dipak panchal" <dipak.197...@gmail.com
<mailto:dipak.197...@gmail.com>> wrote:
to morrow posible 7900 ?
On 11/11/15, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com
<mailto:asis...@gmail.com>> wrote:
> Exp probability at around 8055-8205; SL<7680/7540
>
> From My Lava
> On Nov 11, 2015 9:36 PM, "dipak panchal"
<dipak.197...@gmail.com <mailto:dipak.197...@gmail.com>> wrote:
>
>> Sir. this expiry view in nfty ?
>>
>> On 11/11/15, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com
<mailto:asis...@gmail.com>> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > -------- Forwarded Message --------
>> > Subject: Nifty Fut: Expect 8200-8400 By FY16 &
9200-9400 By FY17
>> > Date: Wed, 11 Nov 2015 11:41:35 +0530
>> > From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com
<mailto:asis...@gmail.com>>
>> > Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com <mailto:asis...@gmail.com>
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > *For NF (Nov), 7750-7680 is big support now followed by
7540-7500 zone;
>> > *
>> > *Near term target 8055*
>> >
>> > *After Bihar "debacle", Govt's pro-active reform
initiatives *
>> > *& dovish RBI may help,*
>> > *Despite Fed lift off "risk" in Dec'15*
>> >
>> >
>> > SGX NF: 7790 (CMP)
>> >
>> > NSE NF: 7800 (LTP)
>> >
>> > Trading Levels: NF-Nov
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > For Intraday Swing Trader
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
>> > Strong > 7770
>> > 7825-40* 7900-80 8005-55* 8085-110
>> 8135-205 <7750
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Weak < 7750
>> > 7720-680* 7660-30 7563-40* 7500-445
>> 7400-300 >7770
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > FOR Conservative Positional Trader
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
>> > Strong > 7770
>> > 7840* 7980 8055* 8110 8205-340 <7750
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Weak < 7750
>> > 7680* 7630 7540* 7445 7300-7030 >7770
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > As expected, after Bihar election debacle (primarily for
its own
>> > strategical blunder for BJP), Govt is now gearing up for
all possible
>> > non-legislative reforms in a big way and yesterday's
Diwali gift of
>> > big-bang FDI reforms may be just an indication.
>> >
>> > We may see more such pro-active initiatives on the part
of the Govt in
>> > the days ahead irrespective of any political compulsions,
because after
>> > Bihar election, BJP might realize that "intolerance, beef
politics, mud
>> > slugging " etc are not alternatives for pro-development
agenda to win
>> > voter's mind.
>> >
>> > Regarding various key reform passage, which are stuck in
RS, Govt may
>> > also try to push it through state levels in an indirect
way (like land
>> > reforms). After Bihar, Govt may also try to reach out to
the key
>> > opposition parties in RS with more soft tones and
re-conciliatory
>> > manners (i.e. back door negotiation & effective political
management)
>> > leaving aside its "arrogance of LS numbers" for passage
of GST & other
>> > key reform bills in winter session of Parliament.
>> >
>> > If united oppositions will not "oblige" either directly
or indirectly
>> > (through abstain), then we may see even an extreme step
like "Joint
>> > Session Of Parliament" to pass those bills.
>> >
>> > Clearly, BJP should believe in its own economic agenda
and reform
>> > implementation policies more boldly, otherwise, even 2019
Parliament
>> > election may not be a "smooth affair" for it.
>> >
>> > Also state level acceptable face of a leader is required
for a CM's
>> > post; too much dependency on "brand NAMO" &
disassociation of its
>> > former
>> > key professional strategist also costing the BJP to a
great extent. The
>> > strategist, who actually made the "brand NAMO" along with his
>> > professional team, recently shifted to Nitish Kumar's
camp just few
>> > months ago of Bihar election, after some section of top
BJP leaders
>> > tried to dump him after 2014 parliament election success
(before Delhi
>> > election) !!
>> >
>> > Though Q2FY16 result is more or less as par street
estimates, certainly
>> > some margin expansion is happening. Going ahead, with
full transmission
>> > of 125 bps rate cut and RBI's possible dovish stance in
FY16-17, we may
>> > see better corporate earnings, operating leverages and
overall economic
>> > recovery despite there may not be favorable base effect
of commodities.
>> > RBI may cut another 0.50% by March'16 for the favorable
inflation curve
>> > and token Fed hike (0.25-0.50%).
>> >
>> > After last Friday's block buster NFP data and hawkish
statements of
>> > various key FOMC members, including Yellen, its seems
that Fed is
>> > likely
>> > to go for some "real action" in Dec meet. FFR is now
showing around 66%
>> > probability of Fed lift off in Dec'15. The market is now
giving
>> > attention, how fast Fed will act and projecting an
average 0.25% in
>> > every alternate meet, thus targeting Fed Fund Rate
1.25-1.50% by
>> > Dec-2016 from the 0-0.25% at present.
>> >
>> > But having said that, there will be various economic data
including
>> > retail sales & NFP on Dec-1st week and Fed will likely to
see that also
>> > very closely for any real lift off. Going by the pure
text books of
>> > economy, Fed should have hike rates much before, but the
real US &
>> > global economy is not a text book and there will be
political pressure
>> > on Fed too for not taking any ultra hawkish steps,
specially in the
>> > 2016
>> > election year of US.
>> >
>> > Thus going by recent rally in USD, even if Fed decides
for a token "one
>> > & off" hike with dovish tone in Dec'15 to counter
growing criticism
>> > and
>> > lack of confidence on US & Global (say China) economy,
USD will be
>> > sold. Any ultra hawkish statement from Fed, like
successive rapid
>> > increment @0.25% in every alternate meet will likely to
cause USD more
>> > strength and will be not good for US economy itself.
Thus, Fed may say
>> > that although headline job numbers is looking great, absolute
>> > participation rate is falling and refrain from any ultra
hawkish stance
>> > for a "meeting by meeting live event" !!
>> >
>> > Even if, Fed decides to hike, there will be no dearth of
liquidity
>> > globally as "24/7 printing machine" & QQE will "on" in
the foreseeable
>> > future, thanks to ECB, BOJ & PBOC.
>> >
>> > For India, appeal of 4-D and lack of other stable EM
destinations will
>> > be an added advantage to attract global liquidity; now it
is up to
>> > India
>> > to set its policies and reform agenda in the the right
direction to
>> > attract more FDI in a sustained way.
>> >
>> > Thus investors may take volatility in our market as an
opportunity to
>> > enter good quality of stocks having credible management,
earning
>> > visibility and great business model with good debt profile.
>> >
>> > *Technically, NF has good support at around 7770 (also
extended EW-4
>> > target) and sustain above that, next EW-5 may take us to
around 8055
>> > area in the near term.*
>> >
>> > *For FY16, target may be around 8200-8405 and consecutive
closing above
>> > 8435, Nifty may scale up to 9200-9400 by FY17.*
>> >
>> > *Have a great"Diwali"----- *
>> >
>> > *Analytical Charts:*
>> >
>> >
>> > <
>>
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nbue4xGAcn8/VkLTU1PB_nI/AAAAAAAAE10/gtxUEprHAEU/s1600/NF-TL-RSI-10-11-2015.png
>> >
>> >
>> > <
>>
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-t8Hq1Tg4IPA/VkLTaSN5y7I/AAAAAAAAE18/34LyJXjpfGQ/s1600/NF-PATTERN-10-11-2015.png
>> >
>> >
>> > <
>>
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WRtp6o9brG8/VkLTcouaHLI/AAAAAAAAE2E/Cqb0rt-2KT0/s1600/NF-EW-10-11-2015.png
>> >
>> >
>> > <
>>
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7KNYSwvhqSI/VkLS4ppi6XI/AAAAAAAAE1g/9s3__Yj4gXM/s1600/NF-WK-10-11-2015.png
>> >
>> >
>> > <
>>
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-49JmIDK9MA8/VkLS6HeM2yI/AAAAAAAAE1o/ZRXQhpVN2Wk/s1600/NF-Fibb-10-11-2015.png
>> >
>> >
>> > <
>>
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nWIO5gKGhyI/VkLS8HxfmfI/AAAAAAAAE1w/6vbuxnW_VtQ/s1600/NF-MA-10-11-2015.png
>> >
>> >
>> > --
>> > Thanks & Regards,
>> >
>> > Asis Ghosh
>> > (asisghosh.blogspot.in <http://asisghosh.blogspot.in>)
>> > NCFM-TA Certified
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > --
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>> >
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