TSL is consecutive closing blw 255 zone ; i.e.250; now watch 244-234 &
NF 7680-7625 zone; if these zones are respected, then buy it.
On 09/12/2015 07:56 AM, dipak panchal wrote:
Sir. ur adani port s.l hit 255 ltp 250
On 12/7/15, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> wrote:
-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Just Dial: May Dial Again 735-700 (If Sustained Below 820-800)
Date: Mon, 7 Dec 2015 07:52:42 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
The recent fall again showed that
Buy back of shares won't change Co's fundamentals
*CMP: 824*
*
*
*Sell either below 820 or on rise around 890-910*
*
*
*TGT: 788-755-735*-690*
*
*
*TSL> 850/925*
*Note: Sustaining below 820, one may sell JD with TSL>850 for lower
targets as above. If it does not sustain below 820, it may also rebound
towards 845-870-890-910 zone and in that alternative scenario, one can
even take the opportunity of rally to sell at higher range of around
890-910 with a TSL>925.*
*Sustain above 925 for any reason, JD may scale 972-1000 zone which is
again a strong supply zone for the stock and in that scenario, one can
cover the shorts for an appropriate strategy near 1000 zone.*
JD scrip corrected significantly by more than 50% in the last one year
and over 40% from early July this year.
In July, the scrip topped around 1290 on the story of company's plan of
entry into e-commerce space (JD-Cash and JD-Omni; a cloud based plug&
play solutions) beside its existing business model of online directory.
The company was very confident about its "Search Plus-SP" as 90% of
India's small local business or SMES has no website of its own. JD has
around 15 mln SMES on its search platform which is around 35% of India's
total SME business and is highest among its peers.
The JD management was also very optimistic to compete with "Yellow
Pages" and "destroy" its business model in the process. The company has
also indicated that they are planning to sell its various subsidiaries
by FY-17 (de-leveraging).
JD also announced small buy back of shares recently (around 1.5% of its
FFS at price up to 1550/- per equity share with record date was at
04/12/2015). But, the scrip already rallied by around 35% from its
recent low in mid November as the buy back news was already there, since
Aug.
Market buzz was that JD will go for inorganic expansion/diversification
in the highly competitive e-commerce space in India (likes of Flikpart,
Snapdeal etc), but it appears that it abandoned/delayed that plan and
are now returning excess cash in BS to shareholders by way of share buy
back.
But off late, analysts are increasingly skeptical about its
business/revenue model. Recently GS downgraded JD for TP 750/- as it
feels that JD's SP business model is not sustainable in the near term
due to rising competition and company's inadequate investment. GS
expects 19% revenue de-growth for the core operation of JD (search
revenue) over FY-15-18 and along with it, rising operating expenses may
cause downward bias for projected EPS in the coming quarters.
Analysts at GS believe that JD's core search business has long term
value due to its brand recall, market leadership and innovation but not
immune to disruption. Going forward, successful execution of SP platform
will be key for JD and for that, substantial investment by the company
is required incrementally.
Over the last few months, analysts are also somehow very skeptical over
the entire "online/internet" listed space in India. Even Info-Edge scrip
is on pressure for various reasons like lackluster results, increased
competition, general economic & real estate slow down (classified
advertisements affected in 99acres.com & naukri.com).
Q2FY16 result of JD was very tepid and search revenue (paid listings)
just grew by 0.8% sequentially (far lower than street estimates).
Though Q2 PAT was around Rs.46.30 cr against consensus of Rs.41 cr, it
was aided by other income of around Rs.26.26 cr (YOY-8.51; QOQ-7.12).
Q2 EBITDA was also down by around 6.7% on YOY basis.
The company has also entered into agreement with KIADB for setting up an
IT Park in Bangalore.
Looking forward, although the SP platform may be a place under one roof,
where paid subscribers has search facilities for nearly everything in
our day-to-day transactions, but in the age of free world of search
engines (Googles and all) and individual e-commerce verticals, the
business/revenue model seems to be very difficult, unless JD can execute
something different of its own (who will book a "Ola" by going into SP
or search for anything local by paying for it ??).
Although JD may become a full e-commerce player in the coming days, it
may be a M&A target also because of its brand image, local search data
etc, but for that reasonable EV/EBITDA or EV/Sales (valuation) is also
required; i.e. it will have to be more cheaper and properly valued wrt
to its business potential.
To be cont for more news inputs & analytics----
*Analytical Charts:*
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OiPyq1rTt1E/VmTpArep9ZI/AAAAAAAAFJY/tU-TXcNeRCM/s1600/JD-04-12-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cLDwKx1ytvc/VmTpGQWOqfI/AAAAAAAAFJg/VIMnEdlmn54/s1600/JD-04-12-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-g5S2CtzG_aU/VmTpHyXEF1I/AAAAAAAAFJo/UFacL19GlWU/s1600/JD-WK-04-12-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DxYnmTKe0Xw/VmTpJzGKakI/AAAAAAAAFJw/8lthm7oqNXU/s1600/JD-PATTERN-04-12-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4499oaxgBF4/VmTpLbRjliI/AAAAAAAAFJ4/XZpoYaWf87M/s1600/JD-TL-04-12-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Gt5NcxpQ9NU/VmTpObDzBjI/AAAAAAAAFKA/56xKuxKNz9o/s1600/JD-PATTERN-LT-04-12-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
--
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--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
--
Kindly email stock reports at
STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com
For sharing knowledge
-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.
http://www.niftyviews.com/
Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of
www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion
and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum
doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or
iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target;
---
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