-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Market Mantra: Tepid Global Cues & News Of SIT Probe On P-Notes Can Make The Market Jittery---Watch 8645-8585 & 8715-8775 Zone In NF
Date:   Thu, 13 Oct 2016 09:51:09 +0530
From:   Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To:       asis...@gmail.com

As par SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Oct) may open around 8665, gap down by around 88 points following tepid global cues and weak Asian Market amid below expected China trade data.

*Technically, NF has to sustain above 8665-8645* zone for any intra recovery; otherwise it may further fall towards 8605/8585*-8555/8530 & 8495/75 area for the day.*
*For any strength, NF need to stay above 8695-8715* area for further up move towards 8755/75*-8795/8840 zone for the day.*

*Similarly for BNF (LTP: 19489), immediate support zone may be around 19350-300 and sustaining below that 19040/18950*-18800/700 may be on the card.*
*For any intra strength, BNF need to sustain above 19550-650 area for further up move towards 19750-850 zone for the day.*

Yesterday's FOMC minutes has nothing new for the global market; but the overall hawkish tone of the same (although some caution for tepid inflation) and a known Fed dove like Evan's tacit admission that Dec'16 rate hike may be appropriate has made the FFR hovering around 67%. Thus the global market may be preparing itself for the impending Dec'16 and 1/2 hike in 2017.

Fed never act without telegraphing the market well in advance and for that FFR 65-75% range may be appropriate as it implied that Fed is successful to communicate the market after months of disbelief and uncertainty about its monetary action. The surging USD TSY yields may be an appropriate indication for the same.

Thus Fed will be in action in Dec, if there is no geo-political & economical shock, like "Trumpism", China jitters, EU banking crisis and turbulence in global financial market for "Brexit" (hard or soft).

Today's China trade data may be also disappointing and may cause some "risk aversion".

Domestically, all eyes will be on the India CPI data today (consensus 4.80%) for an overall assessment of next RBI rate cut hopes in Dec'16.


Thanks & Regards,

Asis Ghosh

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