Market Wrap <>: 09/08/2017 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Aug):9912 (-87; -0.87%) (TTM PE: 25.08; Abv 2 SD of 25; Avg PE: 20; TTM EPS: 395; NS: 9908)

NSE-BNF (Aug):24435 (-259; -1.05%) (TTM PE: 30.66; Abv 3 SD of 30; Avg PE: 20 TTM EPS: 795; BNS: 24375)

For 10/08/2017:

*Key support for NF: 9890/9870-9825*

*Key resistance for NF: 9940-10020*

*Key support for BNF: 24400/24250-23900*

*Key resistance for BNF: 24650/24800-25150*

*Hints for positional trading:*

*Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 10020 area for further rally towards 10065-10115 & 10155-10205 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).*

*On the flip side, sustaining below 10000-9940 area, NF may fall towards 9890/9870-9825 & 9765-9705 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).*

*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24800 area for further rally towards 25050-25150 & 25250-25500 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).*

*On the flip side, sustaining below 24750-24650 area, BNF may fall towards 24400-24250 & 23900-23750 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).*

Nifty Fut (Aug) today closed around 9912, plunged by almost 87 points (-0.87%) after making an opening session high of 9989 and closing minutes low of 9912 on renewed NK geo-political tensions & some unconfirmed market buzz that SEBI may soon notify another list of nearly 600 cos in its “Shell” list.

Although, Govt (FMO) has tried its best to pacify the market by saying that about a dozen of the cos under the present “Shell list” may be permitted to resume normal trading in the bourses, once they will submit their official explanations supported by relevant documents, the whole matter is now at SAT and an extensive legal battle is also expected.

As par the Govt, some of the suspected Shell cos may have indulged in money laundering during the period of DeMo and also have various allegations from the Income Tax Dept ranging from sudden spurt in trading during the time of note ban; MCA has already done their homework before identified such cos as “Shell”.

Thus, although the 12 front line “multi baggers” cos may be permitted to resume their trading after satisfactory explanation, given the fact that a significant amount is blocked there by HNI investors & institutions, rest of the suspected Shell cos may be continued as “multi beggars” instead of prospective “multi baggers”.

Indian market (Nifty Fut) today opened around 9978, almost down by 26 points tracking subdued global cues amid escalation of NK-US geo-political tensions. Most of the Asian markets except Australia are trading in moderate to deep redamid escalation of NK-US geo-political tensions.

As par some intelligence reports from both US & Japan yesterday, NK may have acquired a miniature nuke head technology compatible with its ICBM; i.e. it may have now a nuke capable ICBM/missile, which is able to hit the mainland US.

Following this NK report, Trump has also threatened the nation with “Fire & Fury, the world has never seen before” and in response, NK may have also indicated to attack a US military base at Asia-Pacific Island (Guam).

Thus, all these ongoing NK geo-political tensions has made the risk-on sentiment adverse, USD has gone lower despite an upbeat JOLTS job openings report yesterday; JPY, Gold & also EUR has seen some safe heaven flows and subsequently Equities gone lower.

On economic front, today’s China CPI came bit disappointed at 1.4% for July against estimate of 1.5% (prior: 1.5%) on YOY basis; on MOM basis it flashed as 0.1% against estimate of 0.2% (prior: -0.2%) and PPI came as expected as 5.5% (est/prior: 5.5%).

Although, today’s subdued China CPI/PPI numbers did not have a great impact on the early Asian market bogged down by renewed NK-US geo-politics, overall tepid trade balance (export/import) and subdued PPI may be also disappointed for the reflation savvy world/DM.

A lower CPI in China may also induce PBOC to go for more deleveraging & tighetning, which is not good for risk assets also.

Overall, Trump’s “Fire & Fury” comments may be exaggerated as being a Nuke nation, US may not attack NK without any careful strategic planning and thus credibility of Trump’s warning to NK may be also questionable; but the ongoing NK jitters may be also a wonderful weapon in the hands of Trump to simply talk down the USD without any Fed QQE.

Thus, this NK rhetoric may continue to go on in the days ahead amid escalating “war of words” rather than “war of bullets” without any real resolution or military conflicts (black swan event).

US market (DJ-30) closed lower (-0.15%) yesterday and SPX-500 also closed 0.24% down, the most in the last 30 days as a result of NK geo-political jitters, coupled with pressure on Netflix after Disney decides to ditch the company to broadcast its contents directly.

Although, EU market yesterday closed upbeat, well off the evening lows after EUR tumbled as a result of solid US economic data (JOLTS) and some buzz of an early resolution of the Trumpcare fiasco; but EU futures are now trading lower amid escalation of NK tensions & some rebound in EUR.

Indian market may have tried hard today to cover some shorts after opening lower today; but failed after renewed concern of more cos may come under SEBI Shell list. Subsequently, unwinding of leveraged positions in small & midcaps space may have also affected the Indian market sentiment today; financials & health care stocks were hit most today.

Now, market regulator SEBI need to come forward and clarify the “Shell cos” fiasco clearly as almost Rs.9000 cr may have been stuck by the investors & institutions in those scrips; in any way, even if SEBI clarified about this “Shell cos”, the credibility of the overall market, specially mid & small cap cos may be in disarray in the days ahead as Govt may continue its ongoing war on corruption/black money ahead of 2019 general election and may not show any undue softness.

Various banks may be also in focus because some of these so called “shell cos” may have also significant exposure to the banks; otherwise the fund transfers across geographies & enteritis (money laundering) may not be possible at all.

Looking ahead, apart from earnings, all eyes may be on the China border issues, which may turn serious in the days ahead amid escalation of “war of words” between the two countries. Also, concern of stretched valuations (mixed Q1 earnings), slow pace of RERA implementations & GST return fillings (adverse effect on indirect taxes revenue) and QT by Fed/ECB may be some of the other major headwinds for the Indian market.

Nifty was today supported by Hindalco (optimistic outlook on metals & upbeat earnings by Novelis), HDFC, NTPC, ONGC, Asian Paints, Kotak Bank, INFY & TCS (some rebound in USDINR, despite overall weak dollar).

Nifty was dragged by Sun Pharma (terrible report card from Taro) and other Pharma stocks on weak earnings, pessimistic outlook bogged by increasing concern of US FDA & pricing pressure, cross currency headwinds and domestic GST blues coupled with NPPA overhang.

Also, Tata Motors, Bajaj-Auto, Axis/ICICI/Yes Bank, LT, Maruti, HUL, ITC, SBI & RIL has pulled the Nifty today; RIL reversed the earlier gain today; apart from buzz of Tata Tele M&A with RIL, market may be also concerned over its huge debt for the R-Jio.

A weak EU market tracking NK political jitters and mixed earnings may have also affected the Indian market sentiment in the closing session and it closed almost at the low of the day.

Elsewhere, Australia (ASX-200) is closed in green around 5765 (+0.40%) tracking a lower AUDUSD today after subdued AU consumer confidence, home loan & China CPI/PPI data. Also, banks & metals/miners are helping the AU market today after upbeat earnings/guidance by CBA, which was earlier in pressure due to cash deposit related regulatory issues.

Metals/miners are also upbeat after surge in various metals, especially in Aluminum, which may be also a primary barometer of global growth apart from the Copper; but most of the gains of the metals may be also due to supply related issues amid ongoing crack down in China to stem excess capacities and stop the overnight jumbo companies to distort the market & further to prevent the serious problem of China air pollution. Also, subdued trade data from China may be negative for the metals/miners in the days ahead.

Japan (Nikkei-225) is closed in deep red around 19739, down by almost 1.29% as Yen got stronger for NK related safe haven flows affecting the sentiment of export heavy Japanese market. Despite Japan is at striking distance of a NK missile/Nuke, Yen is getting stronger at times of such regional conflicts because there is a perception that Japan being the biggest creditor of the world, investors will repatriate funds (Yen) back to Japan in times of real crisis.

Japanese market is also being affected by a M&A news between Sumitomo & Yahoo Japan; both of the shares are down today; but it’s being helped by Toshiba to some extent after reports of truce with its Auditors (PWC), which is expected to sign off its annual report card, but may be with a negative view about its internal controls.

China(SSE) is also trading almost flat around 3276 (-0.15%) amid renewed NK geo-political tensions, a subdued CPI & PPI and a strong Yuan with neutral PBOC, which fixed the USDCNY at 6.7075 vs 6.7184 yesterday; at lowest since Oct’16. A strong Yuan may be also negative for the Chinese exports.

Hong-Kong (HKG-33) is also trading in slight red around 27760 (-0.30%) amid increasing NK jitters as China shares a vast border with the nation. HK market is also being affected by mixed earnings & some deleveraging news (possible asset restructuring) of one of the debt laden developers (Wanda).

Meanwhile, South-Korean market (Kospi) fell by around 0.7% and its currency (Won) dropped by 0.50% against the USD tracking NK tensions; it’s also being affected by Samsung, which constitutes almost 20% of the index; Samsung fell by 1.8% today along with some other blue chips; although a weak Won may be a blessing in disguise also for the export heavy SK market.

Gold is up by around 0.55% tracking a weak USD and NK related safe heaven flows; it’s also being seen as an inflation hedge as wage inflation/CPI may be slowly making its ground in US/EU and even in Japan. Technically, now sustaining above 1275 area, Gold may rally further for 1295-1310 zone; near term positional support may be now around 1245.

A weak EU market tracking NK political jitters and mixed earnings may have also affected the Indian market sentiment in the closing session and it closed almost at the low of the day.

Asian session update <>:

FX update <>:







Thanks & Regards,

Asis Ghosh

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