*But Indian Market Recovered Quite Smartly Today At Closing Hours From Day’s Low After SAT Put On Hold SEBI Order Partially & Unconfirmed Reports Of China Troops Pull Back From Doklam*

*Market Wrap <https://www.iforex.in/news/nifty-slips-further-amid-geo-political-tensions-nk-doklam-coupled-sebi-%E2%80%9Cshelling%E2%80%9D-muted-q1-earnings-40081>: 10/08/2017 (17:00)*

*NSE-NF (Aug):9878 (-49; -0.49%) (TTM PE: 24.86; Nr. 2 SD of 25; Avg PE: 20; TTM EPS: 395; NS: 9820)*

NSE-BNF (Aug):24364 (-259; -1.05%) (TTM PE: 30.46; Abv 3 SD of 30; Avg PE: 20 TTM EPS: 795; BNS: 24217)

For 11/08/2017:

*Key support for NF: 9800/9755-9705*

*Key resistance for NF: 9950-10020*

*Key support for BNF: 24250/24090-23890*

*Key resistance for BNF: 24500-24700*

*Hints for positional trading:*

*Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 9830 area for further rally towards 9895-9950 & 10020-10065 area in the short term (under bullish case scenario).*

*On the flip side, sustaining below 9800 area, NF may fall towards 9755-9705 & 9665-9605 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).*

*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24500 area for further rally towards 24700-24850 & 25050-25150 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).*

*On the flip side, sustaining below 24450 area, BNF may fall towards 24250-24090 & 23890-23790 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).*

Nifty Fut (Aug) today closed around 9878, down by almost 49 points (-0.49%), but well off the day’s low of 9804; earlier it has made an opening session high of 9920.

Indian market (Nifty Fut/India-50) today opened around 9895, almost flat & down by 17 points on subdued global/Asian cues amid increasing concern of China tightening coupled with ongoing geo-political tensions ranging from NK-US to China-India-Bhutan tri-junction disputed LOC at Doklam (Sikkim) coupled with fear of more “Shelling” from SEBI.

But, soon after opening weak, the Indian market nosedived further today after some attempt of failed recovery. There was unconfirmed news that Indian army has ordered a village near Doklam area to vacate and a large troops of soldiers from the Sukna (Siliguri-WB) army camp are on their way to the Doklam LOC area and China may be also readying itself for a “minor” military conflict in that controversial area.

All these may have ignited the selling spree of the Indian market today, which was already under pressure from SEBI’s “Shell cos” action and concern of stretched valuations on mixed/muted Q1 earnings so far.

But, the market made a smart recovery (short covering) at the closing hours after news that SAT has given a temporary stay order on appeal against Prakash Ind & J.Kumar Infra in the SEBI “Shelling” matter. These are two of the dozen “blue chip” cos surprisingly under SEBI/MCA “Shell cos” list on serious allegations of money laundering during times of DeMo, using their fictitious “cash balance” shown in the B/S.

Although, this “Shell” matter may go now to the SC eventually, as SEBI will challenge the jurisdiction of SAT over its ruling as par previous SC order, SEBI for the time being may allow the trading of these two particular cos from tomorrow as par SAT direction.

There was also some unconfirmed media report that both China & India has agreed for partial withdrawal of troops from the Doklam LOC to their earlier positions around 250 mts away. Thus, the market may have able to close with minimal loses today.

Looking ahead, Indian market may continue its focus on the Shell cos fiasco as more names may be coming from SEBI shortly amid concerns of serious money laundering allegations during DeMo. But, Pharma cos today attempted to bounce back to some extent after upbeat report card from Auro Pharma despite a challenging environment; metals may be under pressure after reports that China may curb down on soaring prices.

Although, the 12 “blue chip” cos suspected as “shell” may be permitted to resume trading shortly, the margin funding crisis of the brokers & the credibility issues of the whole Shell narratives may continue to haunt the Indian market for the time being. Govt may also tighten its war on black money by making the UID mandatory for the Indian capital market.

Technically, 9755 area in Nifty may be an important support zone for the overall market amid mixed/muted Q1 earnings so far; for any recovery, it need to sustain over 9950-10025 zone in the coming days. Time & price may be indicating a preliminary indication for “death cross” between 10 & 20-DEMA; if such trend continues, then we may have “bigger death cross” in the days ahead.

Pharma counters again came under pressure today at the closing session after news that German Pharma regulator has not renewed a key DRL factory; but IT (INFY/TECHM/WIPRO) today supported the Nifty on bounce back of USDINR; also LT & Kotak bank were in demand today. Overall, healthcare, auto and banking stocks dragged the market today.

Tata Motors is under huge pressure today after disappointed/mixed report card, primarily a victim of cross currency headwinds; it has also confirmed no JV with VW today. Also, SBI, HDFC, RIL, BOB and cement counters has contributed significantly for the slump in Nifty today. Overall, advance/decline ratio was terrible at around 1:10 and basically bears were in rampage for the last few days on “Shell order” by SEBI.

*EU market*was also under pressure tracking NK & China concern and mixed earnings. A strong EUR because of terrible US PPI data & NK related flight to safety may be also affecting the overall market sentiment. NK issues somewhat lingering even today despite down playing by US State Sec as SK & Japan has warned NK if it go ahead with its “planned Guam attack”. Geo-political tension may be also flaring up as US sent a war ship within striking distance of China’s disputed sea territory, an artificial island built by them.

EU Stoxx-50 is now trading almost 0.70% down with DAX/FTSE/CAC all are down around 0.80/1.20/0.32%. FTSE is in good pressure because of some recovery in GBPUSD, thanks to some upbeat UK economic data today.

*Globally*, almost all the major Asian markets are now trading in red amid simmering NK geo-political issues and increasing concern of China tightening after PBOC fixed USDCNY at 6.6770 vs 6.7075 yesterday, much stronger and strongest since late Sep’16; but PBOC also injected a net 30 bln Yuan today.

As par some reports, China may also take some steps to control the soaring steel rebar prices on speculation of tight supply as Govt is closing some jumbo companies, primarily on environment concern & its deleveraging efforts coupled with a fair supply/demand dynamics. As par recent data, China outbound real estate investments has plunged almost 82% in H1CY17, thanks to ongoing regulatory tightening; but it may be a bad news for reflation addicted developed market (DM).

Meanwhile, US rating agency Fitch also predicted slower growth for the Chinese firms in 2018 due to PBOC tightening and deleveraging; growing China bankruptcies & slowing credit may also help to cut the China over capacities.

Thus, all these regulatory tightening aiming at a stable China ahead of its party congress may slow the growth engine of the world and thus it may be a major concern for the world (DM), thriving for inflation/reflation.

*Overnight, US market**(DJ-30)* closed lower (-0.20%), but well off the day low as US state secretary Tillerson downplayed Trump’s “Fire & Fury” narratives and instead asked the American citizens to have a good night sleep without any serious geo-political worries over the NK issues. US Gen Kelly also came forward with a soft stance before Trump is able to tweet some more bytes and all these may have helped to pacify the situation and coupled with that, modest/mixed US economic data calmed the storm on USD too!!

Meanwhile, NK is “planning” to hit (test) a remote place 30-40 kms away from US military base Guam with 4 simultaneous missiles and their army will compete the whole planning within mid-Aug and after that depending on the tone of Trump, NK Prez Kim may order to strike finally; so the whole NK-US rhetoric now seems to be an ideal war Novel rather than any serious stuffs. NK has also described Trump’s “Fire & Fury” comments as “load of nonsense” and narrated Trump as a “guy too bereft of reasons for negotiations and only absolute force can work on him”!!

Thus, these NK-US geo-political tensions may be a simple “war of words” rather than any serious “war of bullets/nukes” and market may now focus on economics rather than politics ahead of US CPI tomorrow.

In fact, Japan & Korea, the most risky nations out of these NK conflicts has brushed off any imminent crisis and also downplayed the whole “Fire & Fury” rhetoric of Trump.

Dovish scripts from two of the known Fed doves (Bullard & Evans) yesterday, stressing importance for the Fed’s 2% CPI target before going on for further rate hikes may not be surprising for the market at all; but Evan’s tacit acknowledgement that Fed may start/announce B/S tapering and may delay the Dec’17 rate hike on subdued inflation concerns may be notable.

In that sense, today’s US PPI & tomorrow’s CPI may be vital; although Fed may be reluctant to go for double QT in Dec’17 (QE/BS tapering & rate hike) and in that scenario, may also take the excuse of sustainable core US inflation above 2%, which is so far elusive and may also remains so due to structural issues in employment & wage growth of US labour market (globalization, automation etc).

Thus, Fed as well as other major G-10 central banks (BOJ/ECB) may be also realizing that the 1980’s model of inflation stimulation will not work in today’s age of automation & globalization despite relentless QQE and this may be the primary reason behind the illusion of 2% inflation in the DM.

Subsequently the global central banks are slowly changing their stance admitting defeat in inflation or stimulation of economy (GDP) by only monetary stimulus and thus giving greater emphasis on the structural/fiscal stimulus.

A recent poll also suggests that both ECB & BOJ may announce QE tapering in the months ahead with their changed inflation target of 1.5%.

Elsewhere, *Australian market* (ASX-200) has closed almost flat around 5760 (-0.10%) helped by some fall in AUDUSD on China tightening concern and general dovish stance on regional commodity currencies after RBNZ tried to talk down the NZD by even mentioning an imminent “intervention”.

AU shares were today affected by energy & financials on mixed earnings, but being helped by airlines & organic baby food maker after upbeat report card.

As expected, *RBNZ* today kept its rate (OCR) at a record low of 1.75% with a dovish bias (dovish hold); but despite its best effort, RBNZ statement looks less dovish than expected, but overall it may be successful to simply talk down the NZDUSD, which is now trading around 0.7278, down by around 1.10%; technically, the pair may be now on its way to 0.7235-0.71240, given the scale of verbal intervention to stem the strength of the currency, which is primarily a by-product of euphoric carry trade like AUD.

Overall, RBNZ stance may be neutral as it’s seeing low & falling NZ inflation as transitory and the economy simply does not need any monetary stimulus at this time; lower NZ inflation may be a structural issue.

*Japan (Nikkei-225)*also closed almost flat around 19730 (-0.05%) on mixed earnings & some USD recovery; but JP market today was dragged by Disney after its restructuring plan looks unimpressive and fails to convince investors/analysts. Noodles maker Nissan also dragged the market today after publish of its below expected result.

Overall, JP economic data today may be mixed with terrible core machinery orders, but upbeat PPI for July at 2.6% against estimate of 2.4% (prior: 2.1%) on YOY basis; on MOM basis PPI flashed as 0.3% against estimate of 0.2% (prior: 0%).

*China (SSE)*is trading around 3261, down by almost 0.42% on increasing concern of regulatory tightening & a strong Yuan, affecting China’s export edge also to some extent as PBOC is on a deleveraging drive coupled with simmering NK tensions & “war of words”.

*Hong-Kong (HKG-33)*is also trading in deep red around 27440, down by almost 1%, but off the early morning low tracking subdued earnings and China concern. But HK market today was helped significantly by Wanda Hotel Development, which is up by over 24% on its restructuring plan.

Meanwhile *Oil (WTI)* is trading around 49.75, up by almost 0.45% on hopes of a faster rebalancing after mixed inventory report (surprised crude drawdown, but unexpected surge in gasoline inventories) amid summer driving season; recent NK tensions flare up may be also helping Crude oil to some extent as USD also goes down.

A full blown military conflict involving NK may be positive for Oil as it will also involve Iran & other OPEC-NOPEC producers including Russia; bur such probability may be now next to nil.

Asian session update <https://www.iforex.in/news/asia-trading-lower-lingering-geo-political-issues-nk-concerns-more-china-tightening-40045>:

FX update <https://www.iforex.in/news/usd-plunged-after-terrible-ppi-report-ahead-us-cpi-tomorrow-40097>:







Thanks & Regards,

Asis Ghosh

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