*Market Wrap <https://www.iforex.in/news>*: <https://www.iforex.in/news>*09/04/2018*
*NSE-NF (April):10392 (+39; +0.38%)*
*NSE-BNF (April):25080 (+174; +0.70%)*
*Market Mantra: 10/04/2018*
*Updated: 07:35*
*SGX-NF: 10405 (+13; +0.13%)*
*Expected BNF opening: 25150 (+0.25%)*
*(Flat Openingon mixed global cues <https://www.iforex.in/analysis/usd-almost-flat-ahead-chinese-presidents-speech-tuesday-50821>amid soft comments so far from China’s Prez Xi and ongoing Trump trade tantrum coupled with FBI raid on Trump’s lawyer & renewed concern about Muller’s investigation)*
*March-Fut (Key Technical Levels)*

*Support for NF:***


*Resistance to NF:***


*Support for BNF:***


*Resistance to BNF:***


*Technical View (Positional):*

*Technically, Nifty Fut-March (NF) has to sustain over 10465 for a further rally towards 10500/10525-10575/10630-10665/10725 in the short term (under bullish case scenario). ***

*On the flip side, sustaining below 10435 NF may fall towards 10360/10340-10290/10240-10175/10140 in the short term (under bear case scenario).***

*Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25250 for a further rally towards 25450/24650-25775/25850-26150/26300 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).***

*On the flip side, sustaining below 25200, BNF may fall towards 25050/24950-24800/24600-24400/24250 in the near term (under bear case scenario).*

*The Indian and global market story <https://www.iforex.in/analysis/nifty-inched-positive-global-cues-amid-hopes-truce-us-china-trade-war-50841>on 09/04/2018:*

The Indian market (Nifty Fut/India-50)closed around 10392 on Monday, inched up by almost 0.38% on positive global cues amid softer and conciliatory tones from Trump regarding the China trade issue and hopes that Chinese Prez (Xi) will downplay the trade war rhetoric by showing his maturity, unlike his US counterpart and made a truce.

The Indian market sentiment was further boosted by confirmation of earlier reports that RBI has allowed 0.50% increase in limits for the FPIs in the Indian government bond (GSEC) purchase for FY-19, which may eventually lower the 10Y bond Yield and borrowing costs of the economy and the Indian corporates. But Indian 10Y bond yields were up slightly to 7.226% on Monday against 7.175% on Friday as the news was already discounted to a large extent.

The market sentiment got a further tailwind on fiscal discipline after the government revised the fiscal deficit just below the estimated 3.5% of GDP for FY-18. Nifty Fut-I made an opening minute low of 10348 and a late day high of 10415 in a day of moderate volatility ahead of Q4 earnings season.

Althoughthe market is quite enthusiastic about NPA cheers and high probable NPA resolution of nine big stressed corporates out of twelve as per RBI mandate, there is a surge of NPA/NPL also in the aftermath of PNB/ICICI Bank fiasco.

The market is now concerned about the unholy nexus of corporates and some bankers regarding the business loan issues and the corruption angle and subsequent big corporate NPA. Apart from this, the legacy issues of big NPA/NPL may be a reflection of the high cost of interest being charged by the Indian banking system decades after decades, which is making a business project unviable in today’s world of Goldilocks economy.

There is also a concern about lack of adequate corporate governance not only in PSU banks like PNB but also in some top private banks like ICICI, which is a risk to their ratings and reputation.

On Monday, Nifty was supported by ITC, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, IOC, Indusind Bank, RIL, BPCL, L&T, M&M, HDFC and others by around 82 points, while it was dragged by Infy, TCS, Tata Motors, ZEEL, VEDL, Bharti Airtel, Lupin, Ultratech Cement, Grasim, Gail and others by around 24 points cumulatively.

Overall on Monday, the Indian market was helped by banks & financials, automakers, FMCG, mixed metals, consumption, energies, infra, while dragged by techs, media, pharma and mixed reality.

*Global cues were positive during Indian market hours on Monday:*
US stock future (SPX-500) was up by 0.53% and European stocks were up 0.35% as global stock markets rally on reduced trade concerns between China and the US. On Friday, Trump's top economic adviser, Kudlow, said that the US and China are holding "back-channel discussions" to resolve an escalating trade dispute and Trump tweeted Sunday that "he and Chinese President Xi will always be friends, no matter what happens with our dispute on trade”, while also predicting that the US would prevail and reach agreements with China on trade issues.

The markets will look to Tuesday's speech by Chinese President Xi at the Boao Forum  for clues to China's response to solve the trade dispute with the U.S.  Russia's benchmark MOEX Stock Index plunged nearly 7% on Monday after the US imposed new sanctions on Kremlin-connected billionaires and as tensions rose between the US and Russia following the latest chemical attack in Syria.

Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +0.51%, Hong Kong +1.29%, China +0.23%, Taiwan +0.67%, Australia +0.34%, Singapore +0.22%, South Korea +0.59%, India +0.48%.

Asian stocks initially began the week rangebound with a non-committal tone seen in the region following the US stock rout last Friday after Trump upped the ante on possible trade tariffs against China and US NFP data fell short of estimates. However, sentiment then gradually improved throughout the trading day which was attributed to US efforts over the weekend to alleviate trade concerns in which Trump predicted that the US would reach an agreement with China on trade and after White House economic adviser Kudlow explicitly stated that this is not a trade war.

As such, ASX 200 shrugged off the early indecision and traded positive, although weakness in mining and energy names capped upside, while Nikkei 225 was lifted by Yen weakness. Elsewhere, Shanghai recovered from the initial cobwebs seen on the mainland’s re-open from a 4-day closure and first opportunity to react to the additional $100 bln tariff consideration against China, while Hang Seng outperformed on declining money market rates after the PBOC resumed liquidity operations after halting for over 2 weeks.

European bourses (Eurostoxx-50 +0.7%) have kicked the week off on the front-foot in fitting with the positivity seen during Asia-Pacific hours on hopes of US-China negotiation rather than confrontation & retaliation. As such, all ten sectors in Europe traded in positive territory with financial names outperforming as Deutsche Bank leads the sector on new CEO optimism. Elsewhere, energy names modestly lag their peer's given price action in the energy sector (higher oil amid Syrian geopolitical tensions).

*USDJPY <https://www.iforex.in/news/usdjpy-edged-mixed-tone-trump-and-hopes-maturity-chinas-president-xi-50819>STORY: <https://www.iforex.in/news/usd-dumped-trumps-twitter-tantrum-and-concern-syria-attack-us-50835>*

*EURUSD STORY: <https://www.iforex.in/news/eurusd-caught-bid-trumps-stupid-trade-tweet-regarding-china-and-draghis-inflation-confidence-50833>*







-- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh

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