*Market Wrap <https://www.iforex.in/news>*: <https://www.iforex.in/news>*10/04/2018*
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*NSE-NF (April):10425 (+31; +0.29%)*
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*NSE-BNF (April):25217 (+125; +0.50%)*
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*Market Mantra: 11/04/2018*
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*Updated: 07:55*
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*SGX-NF: 10425 (+1; +0.01%)*
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*Expected BNF opening: 25220 (+0.01%)*
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*(Flat Opening on mixed global cues amid reduced trade war tensions after conciliatory and diplomatic tone from both Xi and Trump; but the market is now concerned over a high probable attack by US/NATO on Syria. Also, just hours after Xi' speech, there was a report that trade talks between the US and China broke down last week after the Trump administration demanded that China curtail support for high-technology industries).*
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*(The U.S. demands came after Beijing offered to narrow the trade deficit by $50 billion, including by importing more liquefied natural gas, agricultural products, semiconductors and luxury goods. The plans also included opening the financial sector at a faster rate and giving US companies more access to China’s booming e-commerce market. At the same time, China has begun dispute procedure challenging Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs with the WTO).*
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*March-Fut (Key Technical Levels)*

*Support for NF:***

*10400/10350*-10300/10240-10190/10140-10100/10030*

*Resistance to NF:***

*10465/10500-10525*/10575-10630/10665-10725/10835***

*Support for BNF:***

*25150*/25050-24950/24800-24600/24400-24250/23950*

*Resistance to BNF:***

*25325/25450*-25650/25775-25850/26150-26300/26600*

*Technical View (Positional):*

*Technically, Nifty Fut-March (NF) has to sustain over 10465 for a further rally towards 10500/10525-10575/10630-10665/10725 in the short term (under bullish case scenario). ***

*On the flip side, sustaining below 10445 NF may fall towards 10400/10350-10290/10240-10190/10140 in the short term (under bear case scenario).***

*Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25325 for a further rally towards 25450/24650-25775/25850-26150/26300 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).***

*On the flip side, sustaining below 25275, BNF may fall towards 25150/25050-24950/24800-24600/24400 in the near term (under bear case scenario).*

*The Indian and global market story <https://www.iforex.in/analysis/nifty-edged-positive-global-cues-amid-xi-optimism-and-talks-npa-provisions-relief-rbi-50881>on 10/04/2018:*

The Indian market (Nifty Fut/India-50)closed around 10425 on Tuesday, edged up by almost 0.29%*on positive global cues <https://www.iforex.in/news/usd-front-foot-chinas-xi-batted-globalization-50857>*amid conciliatory and diplomatic tones from China’s President Xi and offer of certain concessions intended for US car exports and the issue of so-called IP theft as alleged by Trump.

Nifty Fut-I made an opening minutes low of 10392 and a late day high of 10440 in a day of range bound trading ahead of Q4 earnings reason and talks of NPA provision relief by the RBI. But, higher oil hovering around $65 ON Saudi jawboning and Syrian geopolitical tensions may be also negative for the Indian economy and the market.

As par reports, Indian Banks Association (IBA) has requested RBI to not scrap all the earlier loan restructuring schemes vide its circular dated 12^th Feb’18 and also asked to redefine the term “default” and “stressed assets”.

This may help the banks for window dressing of the NPA/NPL, but RBI unlikely to budge and withdraw its earlier circular completely, but may tweak some parts of it to accommodate certain requests by the IBA. As par, some estimates, at least 2% of overall corporate loans of around Rs.25 trillion would become NPL in Q4FY18 if the RBI circular played out entirely.

As par another report, ICICI Bank may not change its current CEO, under the Videocon loan fiasco as the government is against any drastic change at the top at this juncture. Notably, Videocon group has also paid its dues till Dec’17 and is in the process to clear the same for the March quarter shortly, which is positive for the ICICI bank. But the current CEO may resign of her own by Dec’2018 like the Axis Bank CEO as RBI may be against for further continuation after this year.

The global rating agency Fitch also noted that the PNB fiasco shows that risk control mechanism is weaker in the PNB and certain other banks than previously believed. Such fraud loses will hit bank’s financials, earnings, core capital and also the investor’s trust. The magnitude of the PNB fraud shows that the same was not possible without the active knowledge and support of top bank officials and other banks also should have cross-checked/ verified the authenticity of the LOUs issued by the PNB in the Nirav Modi case before any loan disbursement.

On Tuesday, Nifty was helped by Axis Bank (CEO change by Dec’18), ICICI Bank (no CEO change at this moment), L&T, Hindalco (surge in aluminum prices after Trump’s Russia sanction), ITC, Tata Steel, SBI, Coal India, ONGC, Tech-M and others by around 63 points altogether, while it was dragged by HDFC Bank (hike in lending rate), HDFC, Hero Motors, Bajaj Fin, Tata Motors, M&M (muted growth in passenger car sales for March as par SIAM data), IBULLS Housing Finance, Indusind Bank, Kotak Bank, Bajaj Finance and others by around 36 point cumulatively.

*Global cues were positive on Tuesday during Indian market hours:*
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US stock future (SPX-500) was up sharply by 1.06% and European stocks were also up by around 0.69% at a 3-week high as global stock markets rallied after comments from Chinese President Xi eased fears of an imminent trade war between the US and China.

Xi pledged a "new phase of opening up" in his keynote address on Tuesday in the Boao Forum for Asia (China’s answer to Davos) and warned against returning to a "Cold War mentality" amid trade disputes. Xi pledged to increase imports, lower foreign-ownership limits on manufacturing and expand protection to intellectual property and promised lower import duties for cars.

Energy stocks were higher as oil surged to a 1-week high and mining stocks are stronger as well with copper at a 3-week high amid risk-on sentiment on hopes of a truce in the ongoing US-China trade war rhetorics.

Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +0.54%, Hong Kong +1.65%, China +1.66%, Taiwan +0.31%, Australia +0.83%, Singapore +0.48%, South Korea +0.16%, India +0.27% as conciliatory comments from Chinese President Xi fueled gains in Asian stocks as Xi used his speech to dial down tensions on trade. Japan's Nikkei-225 climbed to a 4-week high on reduced fear of an all-out trade war and some fall in Yen, both positive for the export-heavy Japanese market.

Asia stocks traded higher across the board as the region focused on Chinese President Xi’s address at the Boao Forum which struck a conciliatory tone as he stated that cold war mentality is out of place and that China will expand the opening up of its economy. Furthermore, President Xi also vowed to lower auto tariffs and repeated the suggestion of a win-win scenario.

As such, ASX 200 and Nikkei 225 were underpinned as markets reacted positively to Xi’s bullish speech with Japan helped by a weaker Yen and as automakers cheered the news of the reduced tariffs. Elsewhere, Shanghai and Hang Seng conformed to the optimism, while US equity futures also recovered from the selling pressure seen from reports the FBI raided Trump lawyer Cohen amid investigation related to possible bank fraud, campaign finance and the payment made to Stormy Daniels.


EU equities traded higher on the back of an improved risk-on sentiment throughout the market. This comes off the back of positive comments from Xi striking a conciliatory and diplomatic tone and advocating the expansion of the Chinese economy. This allowed for the paring back of losses seen overnight for US equity futures that came as a result of Trump’s lawyer Cohen being raided in relation to the Daniels case. US equities, however, corrected slightly later as there were reports of a breakdown in talks between the US and China due to disagreements over the high-tech industry. Leading sectors include industrials and consumer discretionary.

*USDJPY STORY: <https://www.iforex.in/news/usdjpy-inched-conciliatory-tone-chinas-xi-and-reports-broken-negotiation-us-50855>*

*EURUSD STORY: <https://www.iforex.in/news/eurusd-almost-flat-amid-ecb-squabbling-regarding-policy-guidance-50867>*

*GBPUSD STORY: <https://www.iforex.in/news/gbpusd-front-foot-amid-hawkish-jawboning-boe-50871>*

<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4LwmhbOvFIs/Ws2ZIzRz-DI/AAAAAAAAPmo/iLLhXoFxLYchkiOL6hgBrX7E5DhLToLpQCLcBGAs/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-10-04-2018.png>

*SGX-NF*

<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WeqBnTJtVP4/Ws2ZOAom5xI/AAAAAAAAPms/JmB3PxPUswMVZ3d6BxT7cfW3v2xrgaZGwCLcBGAs/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-10-04-2018.png>

*BNF*

<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Gndjz5_dQeA/Ws2ZbawIUII/AAAAAAAAPmw/a4ET2H8KbsM92kvxTaMa1vYdn9oioXIhACLcBGAs/s1600/USDJPY-PATTERN-10-04-2018.png>

*USDJPY*

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