War or Peace in Macedonia? Neue Zurcher Zeitung August 13, 2001 [O]ne of the most serious weaknesses of the agreement has to do precisely with disarming the rebels. Anyone who believes that they will simply surrender their arms peacefully has failed to learn from previous experience in the region. The power of the rebel forces is based on the weapons. When they want to up the ante for concessions, they simply launch an attack. [After these astute observations the drug kicks in.] Abstract War or Peace in Macedonia? The agreement initialed on 8 August in Macedonia may have become worthless before the scheduled signing five days later. It is unclear whether foreign mediators will manage to impose the compromise before the conflict spins out of control. The most recent threat to the agreement came when a Macedonian army convoy was attacked by forces of the National Liberation Army (UCK), costing ten lives. The timing of the UCK attack, just hours before the political agreement was reached, suggests that at least some of the Albanian rebel forces are no longer under the control of the politicians. It points up the fact that one of the most serious weaknesses of the agreement has to do precisely with disarming the rebels. Anyone who believes that they will simply surrender their arms peacefully has failed to learn from previous experience in the region. The power of the rebel forces is based on the weapons. When they want to up the ante for concessions, they simply launch an attack. The Macedonians must remember that there can be no military resolution to the conflict. But only NATO, by disarming the rebels, using force if necessary to do so, is in a position to create the necessary preconditions for implementing the agreement. With Western leaders afraid to risk military casualties, the chances for peace are slim. 13 August 2001 / First published in German, 10 August 2001 http://www.nzz.ch/english/editorials/2001/08/13_macedonia_ab.html
