Russia anxious over grip on oil as US firms join Great Game
By Ben Aris in Moscow and Ahmed Rashid in Lahore
(Filed: 24/10/2001)
FOR all the talk of international alliances and the future of Afghanistan, the real
concern for Moscow in Central Asia is cementing its control of the oil supply and the
successful conclusion of the modern Great Game.
Since the fall of the Iron Curtain, Russia has kept Central Asia's huge oil and gas
reserves bottled up by restricting access to export pipelines, all of which run over
Russian territory.
America has been pushing alternative pipeline projects out of the region that do not
run over Russian soil.
Last week, Condoleeza Rice, the US national security adviser, assured the Kremlin that
America had no designs on Central Asia even as a new oil pipeline went online,
strengthening Russia's influence in the region.
One of the major reasons that Washington supported the Taliban between 1994 and 1997
was the attempt by the US oil giant Unocal to build a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan,
through Taliban-controlled southern Afghanistan, to Pakistan and the Gulf.
At the time America and Unocal hoped that the Taliban would swiftly conquer the
country.
As the first tanker at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossisk was loaded with oil
pumped from Kazakhstan through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline, it looked
like the rivalry between Moscow and Washington was over.
But as American interests intensify in the region, Moscow is nervous about giving
Washington a toehold.
Ms Rice's statements were designed to allay fears. She said in an article in the
Russian daily Izvestia: "I want to stress this: our policy is not aimed against the
interests of Russia. We do not harbour any plans aimed at squeezing Russia out of
there."
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have some of the largest reserves of oil and gas in the
world, but Russia cut them off from international markets as all their export
pipelines run over Russian territory.
America tried aggressively to break the Kremlin stranglehold over the region, but Ms
Rice's comments were the strongest sign yet that Washington is prepared to concede
Russia's dominance.
US-Russian relations have been revolutionised since the September 11 attacks on
America.
In a brave decision, President Putin thumbed his nose at Russia's generals still
labouring under Cold War prejudices and gave the go-ahead for Central Asian states to
play host to US forces.
Both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are allied to Moscow through the Russian-led
Commonwealth of Independent States, and have allowed use of airfields.
The Kremlin is still nervous, however, about giving America the opportunity to
increase its influence in Central Asia.
After a decade of grandiose promises by international oil companies for an oil
pipeline failed to materialise, Kazakhstan has thrown in its lot with the Russians.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium line is the first big one to be built since the fall
of the Soviet Union.
Led by Chevron, CPC brought together the governments of Kazakhstan, Russia and Oman,
as well as several other oil companies, to raise �1.7 billion of financing.
The petrodollar taps are opening for the Central Asian republics which, despite their
huge reserves, have been wallowing in economic misery for much of the past decade.
Russia will also do well out of the pipeline. Most of the 1,150-mile route runs across
Russian territory. It is expected to earn Russia �28 billion over 30 years.
The war in Afghanistan may have ended America's ambitions in the area as a quid pro
quo for Russia's co-operation in the US-led campaign.
But when peace and a stable government eventually comes to Kabul, US oil companies
will be looking closely at Afghanistan because it offers the shortest route to the
Gulf for Central Asia's vast quantities of untapped oil and gas.
They have invested US$30 billion (�20 billion) in developing oil and gas fields in
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, but exporting to the West
involves lengthy and expensive pipelines.
American companies are barred from building pipelines through Iran, and are reluctant
to build them through Russia.
Washington is now proposing a US$3 billion pipeline from Azerbaijan, on the Caspian
Sea, through Georgia to Turkey's Mediterranean coast - a lengthy and expensive project
that will put huge transport costs to every barrel of Central Asian oil that reaches
Europe.
US companies could build a similar pipeline from Central Asia through Afghanistan to
Karachi at half the cost, if the next Afghan government can guarantee its security.
Russia fears that is exactly what the Americans want and, now that US troops are based
in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, they will establish a permanent presence and not leave.
America has pledged to "consult" in the event of a direct threat to the security or
territorial integrity of Uzbekistan, wording that has increased suspicions in Moscow
that American troops will stay in its Central Asian backyard after the shooting in
Afghanistan is over.
a.. Ahmed Rashid is author of Taliban: Islam, Oil and the New Great Game in Central
Asia.
NSP Lista isprobava demokratiju u praksi
==^================================================================
EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?bUrBE8.bVKZIq
Or send an email To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
This email was sent to: [email protected]
T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail!
http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register
==^================================================================
