STOP NATO: �NO PASARAN! - HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK "But chances of massive economic development are low. Instead, Serbia and Montenegro are likely to become isolated debtor nations. Without access to Montenegro's ports, Serbia's economy will become more a liability than an asset to Europe. A lack of capital and a devastated infrastructure will make Serbia the slower of the two to develop. Montenegro's economy has an effective head start on Serbia and will likely draw more investors. The situation in and around Albania, as a result, is likely to become more problematic in the short term. A weakened Yugoslav military will be unable to contain ethnic Albanian insurgents. Two years after NATO bombed Yugoslavia, the alliance will find that Serbia and Montenegro will need protection from the alliance." ------------- The Milosevic Extradition Velvet Coup: Serb Rivals Gain Power Over Kostunica Updated 2355 GMT, 010628 Summary Behind the sudden extradition of former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, lies another event: the demise of the fragile coalition in Belgrade. It is clear that the Yugoslav president was locked out of the decision to extradite Milosevic. In Belgrade, Kostunica stands isolated. Instead, the Serbian government appears to be increasing its control, turning on both Milosevic and Kostunica. After nearly a century, the nation of Yugoslavia is reaching the beginning of its end. Analysis As Yugoslavia reacts to the extradition of its former leader, a number of signs are emerging indicating that the president of Yugoslavia, Vojislav Kostunica, was in fact locked out of the momentous decision to finally extradite the man who had ruled the country for a decade. In the overnight hours between June 27 and June 28, 15 of 23 cabinet ministers in Kostunica's government met to discuss one topic: the extradition of Milosevic to The Hague for war crimes and crimes against humanity. One important figure did not attend: Kostunica. Later Belgrade's Radio B92 reported that the president had not even been invited to the meeting. Once regarded by the West as a cooperative leader, Kostunica had been, in fact, the last barrier to the extradition of Milosevic. Just hours before the extradition - likely after the decision had been made - the Yugoslav Beta news agency reported that Kostunica promised the Serbian Socialist Party - Milosevic's former party - that their former leader would not go to The Hague until a high court, the Constitutional Court, ruled on the legality of the decree ordering Milosevic to trial. A velvet coup is sweeping aside Kostunica's fragile coalition government. Most of the coalition that put him in power eight months ago is arrayed against the president; the support of the people appears to have been wide but shallow. There is a group within the government of Serbia, one of only two governments left in the federation, that is doing away with the federation. Serb Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic Led by the most powerful politician in Belgrade today, Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic, this group now includes 17 of the 18 parties that Kostunica has led. It is entirely legal, under the Serbian Constitution, and the Serbian government is steadily marginalizing the federal government into obsolescence. This group of Serbs is now effectively in control of the most important government offices, at the federal level, in important international missions now ongoing, and the most important ministries at the federal level, such as the interior and justice ministries. Djindjic controls the Yugoslav delegation to the international donor conference in Brussels, which will decide on up to $4.5 billion in economic aid. It is economic aid, too, that is driving the effort to topple Kostunica - and demonize Milosevic. The Yugoslav economy is in shambles, its output having dropped some 40 percent since the 1999 war for Kosovo. Abroad, the Serbian-led government has moved to revive trade with the former republics of Yugoslavia in the past six months. At home, the Serbian government is discovering new mass graves allegedly tied to massacres in Kosovo, but conveniently hidden for more than two years. An unnamed spokesperson in the interior ministry announced on June 28, just before Milosevic was hustled to the airport, that the bodies of 36 ethnic Albanians, nine of them children, had suddenly been discovered in a Belgrade suburb, according to Blic, an independent news agency. The victims are reportedly from Suva Reka, in Kosovo - the site of an alleged mass murder, included in the indictment against Milosevic. These findings cap a steady drip-drip-drip of evidence that has gradually turned once loyal Serbs against Milosevic and effectively toward Djindjic. A drumbeat has sounded throughout much of the Serb media. Just three days before Milosevic was bundled up and shipped off, Beta news agency reported the findings of a poll by the Alternatives Study Center (CPA). The confused report claimed that half of Serbs now support Milosevic's extradition, while elsewhere it quoted CPA researchers as saying that public opinion has not really shifted. Beyond Belgrade: The Future of the Federation In recent weeks, the debate over extraditing the former president has revealed the deep fractures now cracking under the Yugoslav federation. Unity has been shaky many times since Milosevic's ouster in October. Montenegro's Socialist People's Party (SNP), a junior partner in the ruling coalition, has threatened to pull out. The threats have largely been a bargaining chip in as quest for equal status with Serbia in the federation or, failing that, independence. Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic is driving a campaign for independence, slowly building support. A referendum could take shape within months. But now, Serbs within the reform government increasingly favor dissolving the federation. Technocrats backing Djindjic's reform program want to make a clean break with holdovers of the Milosevic regime, begin building a viable market economy and create a democratic Serbia to integrate with Europe. Throughout, Djindjic has held the upper hand over the federal president, Kostunica. Now, Deputy Prime Minster Zarko Korac, an ally of Djindjic, has gone so far as to tell the BBC that Kostunica and his party were "quite isolated." As of 10:25 p.m. Belgrade time June 28 - more than six hours after Milosevic was extradited - the Serbian government had yet to officially notify Kostunica of the move, according to Reuters, which cited a source in the president's office. The move against Kostunica and the federal government is carefully cloaked in the legality of the Serbian Constitution. In 1990, Milosevic added a clause to the republic's constitution granting Serbia the right to reject any federal law, decree or court decision if it clashed with Serbian interests. Djindjic has shrewdly used that clause to bypass protections that Milosevic built in for himself, later, in the federal constitution. The Crisis That Now Confronts the West Throughout the past several months, Western governments and human rights groups have hailed extradition as a courageous step. In fact, extradition now not only threatens the future of Yugoslavia as a country but billions in Western aid and security in the tumultuous Balkans. This reality is now settling into Serbia. A spokesman for Montenegro's ruling Democratic Party of Serbia, Igor Luksic, told Radio B92 that Milosevic's extradition said, "It's high time to face reality and accept that Serbia and Montenegro should be two independent states." The independent Onasa news agency in Sarajevo quoted an unnamed Western diplomat in Belgrade as saying, "I don't see how they will be able to avoid a government crisis." Miodrag Zivkovic, leader of the Liberal Alliance of Montenegro, said the extradition of Milosevic did not mark the first time such a decision was made for the sake of a nation's survival and for cash, according to I*Net news service. The collapse of the federation would mark the final fracture of the formerly united Yugoslav state, a fragile entity knitted together after World War I but ripped apart by bloody ethnic rivalries during the 1990s. The splitting of the federation will have economic and political consequences for the Balkans and internationally. The United States and European Union will experience economic benefits, finding it easier to stimulate regional development. Donor nations can better enforce and reward two exclusive programs for combating corruption endemic in both Serbia and Montenegro; in the past, federal officers could hamper the process. Russia, on the other hand, will also lose a fair-weather ally when Yugoslavia falls, isolating Russia from the politics of the region. But chances of massive economic development are low. Instead, Serbia and Montenegro are likely to become isolated debtor nations. Without access to Montenegro's ports, Serbia's economy will become more a liability than an asset to Europe. A lack of capital and a devastated infrastructure will make Serbia the slower of the two to develop. Montenegro's economy has an effective head start on Serbia and will likely draw more investors. The situation in and around Albania, as a result, is likely to become more problematic in the short term. A weakened Yugoslav military will be unable to contain ethnic Albanian insurgents. Two years after NATO bombed Yugoslavia, the alliance will find that Serbia and Montenegro will need protection from the alliance. Related Analysis: Trial in The Hague: Why No Charges of Gencide in Kosovo Summary The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia now awaits Slobodan Milosevic for alleged war crimes in Kosovo. But in the two years since the Kosovo conflict, it appears that the former president did not commit the genocide he was accused of by NATO, including the deaths of some 10,000 people. Ironically, the charges he faces would make it easy for international courts to try a variety of foreign leaders and military officers, including Americans. Analysis Former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic will likely be extradited to face charges at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Milosevic is charged with crimes against humanity and war crimes for his role in the 1999 Kosovo conflict. An indictment for Milosevic's role in the Bosnian war, from 1992 to 1995, has not yet been released, according to an ICTY spokeswoman. Click here to continue. Yugoslavia: Right Back Where We Started Summary Just two years after NATO won its conflict against Yugoslavia, the new government in Belgrade is preparing to extradite former President Slobodan Milosevic. But a new, old logic now flows from the Balkans. The charges against Milosevic, regarding Kosovo, do not appear to amount to the rhetoric leveled at him during the war. And the need to reward the Kostunica government for its help is strong. Expect NATO to reward Belgrade -- quite possibly with Kosovo. Analysis Two events in the Balkans last week drew attention back to the troubled region. The first was the apparent decision by the Kostunica government to extradite former president Slobodan Milosevic for war crimes charges. The second was an attempt by Europe to broker a cease-fire in Macedonia. Both, in different ways, are cautionary tales against thinking that closure in the Balkans is possible. Click here to continue. Yugoslav Legislation May Send Milosevic to The Hague -22 June 2001 Where Are Kosovo's Killing Fields? -17 October 1999 Milosevic Arrest Heightens Feud -30 March 2001 Montenegro Seeks Independence from the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia -28 November 2000 ______________________________________________________________________ To unsubscribe, write to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
