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[Via Communist Internet... http://www.egroups.com/group/Communist-Internet ]
.
.Roundup: No Breakthrough Expected at Climate Change Talks in Bonn
Representatives from some 180 countries will meet here from July 16-27 to
resume the sixth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP6) to the
United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change to seek ratification
of the Kyoto Protocol.

The protocol, signed in 1997 in Japan
<http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/data/japan.html> 's Kyoto, is the first
real attempt by the international community to reduce emissions of
greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel burning.
Scientists say the gases are heating the earth's atmosphere with potentially
disastrous consequences.

The average global temperature is likely to rise by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees
Celsius in this century if the greenhouse gas emissions are not curbed, a
scientific body set up by the United Nations has said.

Among the most serious consequences of the climate change will be the
melting of polar ice caps, desertification, and lower-lying countries
sinking below rising sea levels, scientists warned.

But no signals can be seen for a breakthrough on the Kyoto treaty in Bonn.

The United States <http://www.peopledaily.com.cn/english/data/usa.html> ,
the biggest greenhouse gases emitter in the world, announced its withdrawal
from the treaty in March, which gave a fatal blow to the vulnerable treaty
aimed at curbing greenhouse gases.

The Kyoto treaty sets targets for developed countries to reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2 percent over 1990 levels by 2012. For the
treaty to be ratified, 55 nations representing 55 percent of industrialized
countries' emissions are needed.

Trying to find an excuse for rejecting the treaty it signed in 1998, the
Unites States claimed that the pact would harm its economy and was unfair
because it does not set limitations for developing countries to curb their
emissions. 

The stance of the Americans seems unshakable. Europe has made many attempts
to coax the U.S. back to the treaty but failed.

European Union Environment Commissioner Margot Wallstrom said the U.S.
opposition to the Kyoto treaty made it unlikely to reach a deal in Bonn. She
did not expect the return of the U.S., saying it would take a long time for
it to come around. 

Without the U.S., it is still theoretically possible to get the Kyoto treaty
ratified if other countries that negotiated formerly alongside with the U.S.
such as Japan, Canada
<http://www.peopledaily.com.cn/english/data/canada.html> , and Australia
<http://www.peopledaily.com.cn/english/data/australia.html>  could say yes
to the treaty. 

As one of the biggest emitters, Japan produces 8.5 percent of global
greenhouse gases and is viewed as a key factor in keeping the Kyoto treaty
alive after the U.S. retreat.

But Japan has given mixed signals recently. While claiming it wants to
salvage the pact bearing the name of its ancient capital, Japan has given no
clear indication whether it will ratify the treaty without the U.S.

According to Japanese press reports, Japan is planning to submit a proposal
to the upcoming conference in Bonn to reach an agreement at the next climate
meeting or even later, which indicates that Japan has abandoned the option
of ratifying the pact in Bonn.

The signal from Australia is more disheartening. Despite the attempts by a
European Union (EU) delegation to persuade the Australians to agree to the
pact earlier this month, the answer from Canberra is clear: Australia will
continue to support the United States and the pact without the biggest
emitter will be meaningless.

Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien has pledged to work with the EU on the
pact, but has not agreed to step forward without Washington.

Analysts say that while keen to protect their industries from producing
greenhouse gases, the three countries are also under pressure by Washington
to follow it. 

Yet the Bonn conference will not be a "do-or-die" affair, experts say. The
European countries have vowed to act without the U.S.. Even a partial
agreement would be better than nothing, EU Environment Commissioner
Wallstrom said. 

"I think we should be ambitious but realistic," she added.

****


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