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http://www.russianobserver.com/foreign/cis/2001/07/17/995374314.html

The Russian Observer
July 17, 2001



New stage in Brzezinsky Plan for Ukraine
Architects of the Brzezinsky plan are preparing two
scenarios of further developments: "Meciar-Milosevic
scenario" and "Lukashenko scenario"
 

Bogdan Khmelnitsky
17.53.2001, 16:53
 

The Brzezinsky Plan that was concocted in the inner
sanctums of the American Congress and in the
Washington think tanks in the plush offices of
American citizens that emigrated from Poland and
Ukraine had as its goal in 1999-2000 to implement "the
Milosevic scenario:"

1) President Kuchma's conversations were secretly
recorded;

2) a little known journalist, Georgy Gongadze, was
chosen as a potential victim (he was either squirreled
away and hidden by the American or Polish secret
services, or he was liquidated by Ukrainian fascists
to get him out of the way) allegedly on President
Kuchma's orders - the Ukrainian president used words
unfit for printing in reference to Gongadze);

3) Major Melnichenko, a security officer, who was
persuaded to become a turncoat, took the job of
recording the president's conversations (100 hours of
tape recordings made beneath a sofa);

4) with the help of the media controlled by the
"Brzezinsky coalition, President Kuchma was accused of
organizing the assassination of journalist Gongadze;

5) public demonstrations were organized to demand the
beginning of an impeachment procedure against
President Kuchma.

The next stages of this plan were supposed to be:

- resignation of Leonid Kuchma;

- transfer of power to acting president, Prime
Minister Yushchenko who is totally controlled by the
"Brzezinsky group;"

- prescheduled presidential elections that would be
won hands down by Viktor Yushchenko, making use of
administrative control over the leading media and
massive financial backing from the "Brzezinsky group;"

- selling out Leonid Kuchma to international justice
in exactly the same manner that the Serbs sold out
ex-president Milosevic;

- Viktor Yushchenko, under American control, was to
start deRussification of Ukraine - squeezing out the
Russian language, introducing a visa regime for
Russia, dumping all contracts in the
military-technical sphere, blockade of Russia's Black
Sea Fleet, Ukrainian secret services and the army were
to be placed under control of American and Polish
officers.

However, this plan was not destined to materialize in
view of the low level of professionalism of those who
were supposed to carry it out. Another reason why the
plan fizzed out was that all the funds that were
directed towards ousting Kuchma were simply pilfered.
But the main reason why the plan did not work out was
that the majority of Ukrainian citizens are afraid of
total rule by "westerners." They are considerably more
afraid of the Polish-brainwashed and
Catholic-brainwashed inhabitants of western Ukraine
with their frenzied nationalism than they are afraid
of Kuchma's oligarchs. The Ukrainian citizens are also
afraid of the chaos in the event of the development of
the planned political crisis. 

The "Brzezinsky coalition" suffered a resounding
defeat and was compelled to retreat, licking its
wounds and taking along their wounded: Viktor
Yushchenko and Yulia Timoshenko.

But political life is a fast moving affair,
parliamentary elections are due in March, and so a new
stage of the "Brzezinsky plan" has been drawn up. It
has also originated in the offices of Polish-American
Congressmen and Washington think tank analysts.

The parliamentary ballot is the main objective at the
new stage. The ideologists of the anti-Kuchma campaign
state directly that "the future parliamentary
elections will be the most crucial event since
declaration of Ukrainian independence." The architects
of the Brzezinsky plan are based on standard schemes
and are preparing two scenarios of further
developments: "Meciar-Milosevic scenario" and
"Lukashenko scenario."

"Meciar-Milosevic scenario"

Stage one is reserved for an active election campaign
with anti-presidential slogans. Currently there are
three columns within the "Brzezinsky coalition:" an
ultra-right one led by Viktor Yushchenko, a
centrist-oligarchic one led by Yulia Timoshenko, and a
moderately leftwing one led by Alexander Moroz. It is
assumed that the people are sick and tired of Kuchma
and his oligarchs and do not trust the communists.
This will enable the three columns of the "Brzezinsky
coalition" to gain a majority in the Parliament.

At stage two, the parliamentary majority forms the
Yushchenko-Timoshenko Government.

Stage three sees the start of impeachment proceedings
against President Kuchma. 

The parliamentary elections scenario was used in
Slovakia to topple Prime Minister Meciar (Slovakia has
a parliamentary system). Playing the decisive role in
molding public opinion and running the election
campaign were not so much local Slovak structures as a
network of organizations created with international
aid - foundations, research groups, centers and others
- whose declared goal it was "to create conditions for
the holding of free elections," and "to control the
holding of elections." This type of organizations has
been created in Ukraine and will doubtlessly be
actively employed during the election campaign. After
that the developments will unobtrusively take the form
of the "Milosevic scenario," thus coming back to the
option the "Brzezinsky coalition" attempted to
implement in early 2001.

At stage four the impeachment proceedings are dropped
in exchange for the holding of early elections.

At stage five, Yushchenko wins the presidential
elections, with "the Brzezinsky coalition" controlling
the Ukrainian media.

At stage six, Leonid Kuchma is sold to the
international justice in exchange for a promise of
investments, but in fact in exchange for independence.

Further on, Yushchenko is used as a puppet for the
fight against Russia. Ukraine under Yushchenko is cast
in the role of a pawn in a great chess game played
against Russia, a plaything in the hands of
venturesome geopolitical gamblers.

But it is not easy to give effect to this scenario,
because most people in Ukraine are opposed to doubtful
experiments - 85 % of them want good relations with
Russia. For this reason the "Brzezinsky coalition" is
getting ready for using the "Lukashenko scenario" in
case it fails to win the elections - they would
discredit the elections and to declare elected
parliament and president illegitimate. Later they plan
gradually to isolate Kuchma and bring greater pressure
to bear on him. The purpose is to compel him to resign
sooner or later and then sell him out to an
international court the way Milosevic was sold out.

To carry out this scenario, a large group of observers
is being formed to judge whether the elections are
democratic or not, depending on their outcome. To
attain this goal, the committees monitoring the
elections should more or less be controlled from one
center. To that end, a system of financing and
controlling them is being established. The financing
procedure is to be simplified to achieve better
control. This not only makes the whole work simpler
but also creates conditions for embezzlement, which
not only attracts indecent people to monitoring the
elections but also allows one to control them better,
so that they could be accused of corruption at any
appropriate time. In this way a coalition of
avaricious observers of parliamentary elections in
Ukraine is being formed. All this makes the system of
monitoring the elections, which is being created at
present, undemocratic in principle. 

The fundamental fact is that the system being created
is directed against democracy - it is to be used for
imposing a choice on the people of Ukraine, which they
would never make on their own free will, since 85% of
the population there gives priority to relations with
Russia. So, an anti-Russian politician cannot come to
power in Ukraine in a democratic way. He can only be
imposed on the Ukrainian people. And this is what the
"Brzezinsky coalition" is trying to do.

At first a method of rendering the elections
illegitimate will be tested in Belarus. Preparations
for this are under way. Groups for this purpose have
already been formed. Lukashenko is naive to think they
are going to train militants against him. Their goal
is more important - to declare his presidency invalid
and to declare him an usurper. The principles on which
the elections in Belarus and then in Ukraine will be
declared invalid have already been formulated. They
have been published on the Washington online site with
the money of the U.S. Congress. Meanwhile, it has been
announced that an international mission is to be
created. Its work is to be coordinated by Andrew
Carpenter. The principles are:

1. transparency of elections

2. access of opponents to state media

3. absence of discrimination against political
opponents

4. the significance of the parliament's powers.

On the basis of these principles the legitimacy of
first the Belarus President and then the Ukrainian
parliament will be rejected. Alexander Lukashenko has
long been the target for his efforts to achieve
integration with Russia. But why Kuchma? Perhaps just
because they want so.

The goal of Russia's present policy with regard to
Ukraine is to ensure non-interference in its domestic
affairs, independence of Ukraine, and democracy in
Ukraine.





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