I took out my Excel spreadsheet and created a simple scenario.
Here are my assumptions:
Of 1000 people:
750 of them avoid smoky environments to some extent
250 of them seek out smoke-tolerant places
Lets assume that if this seeking/avoidance behavior did NOT exist, that
all 1000 people would spend an average of $40 in each of 8 different
outings each month, and there wouldn't be any difference between the two
groups.
This means that the Smoke Seekers would spend $80,000 per month, and the
Avoiders would spend $240,000 per month.
Now, lets say that a certain percentage of the people in these groups
start reducing their spending because they can't find a place to go and
spend their money.
If the Seekers reduce their spending by 20%, the industry loses $16,000
If the Avoiders reduce their spending by the same amount, the industry
loses $48,000
If the smoke seekers reduced their spending by 90%, the industry would
lose 72,000 dollars. But, the Avoiders only need to reduce their
spending by 30% to do the same amount of damage to the industry.
I don't know any way to verify it, but I would not be at all surprised if
nonsmokers reduce their spending by at least 30% than they otherwise would
if they could get clean air.
Moreover, I really doubt that spending by smokers would DROP by 90 percent
if we had a smoking ban.
The numbers seem to be on the side of the smoke-avoiders, because there
are lots more of us. The numbers are easy to play with, but I can't see
any way to make the case that a smoking ban would cost the industry money,
unless you want to argue that the smoke avoiders don't really care that
much, and I think the popularity of the ban proves that that is not so.
Come on bars! Take my money! Give me some clean air!
--
Bob Treumann, Saint Paul
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