This reasoning relies on the mean length of a lunation.  But the
actual case is more complicated.  See my reply to John on this same
subject.

Jim
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Gregor Samsa awoke one morning to find himself transformed into an
enormous software defect.               -- Hindin Joseph

> I think it pretty well follows. Consider the latest possible case, where a 
> full moon falls late on January 31. February will have no full moon, even
> in a leap year, with a 29.5 day sidereal month. That puts the next full
> moon on either March 1st or 2nd, and the *next* full moon will fall on
> March 30 or 31.
> 
> I:    31/01   23:50
> plus  29      12:00
>       60/01   35:50
> corr  61/01   11:50
> corr -31                 (leap year)
>       30/02   11:50     30/02   11:50
> corr -28               -29
> II:   02/03   11:50     01/03   11:50
>       29      12:00     29      12:00
> III:  31/03   23:50     30/03   23:50
> 
> If the first full moon falls earlier on January 31, the third one will
> still be within March...
> 
> Dave
> 
> 

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