Long-term ROI is a fine argument, but it doesn't tend to sway many people.  If you read Jonathan's blog, it is very puzzling why SunRays aren't the lowest cost solution from day 1. 

http://blogs.sun.com/roller/page/jonathan?entry=the_world_changes_this_week
http://blogs.sun.com/roller/page/jonathan/20040712#commodities_railroads_and_how_sun

To be fair, Sun has made progress at easing the cost and pain of moving from PCs to SunRays.  Despite some massive deployments, they will remain a niche technology until they undercut the short-term cost of the competition.

Making predictions is always difficult, especially about the future.

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