MH wrote: >Herberts Peak (link) and other graphs >http://zebu.uoregon.edu/enhs/ > >Fossil oil reserves expected to be depleted in about 50 years. >"Physics 162: Renewable Energy Sources" >http://zebu.uoregon.edu/2001/ph162/l1.html >University of Oregon (USA) >÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷
Thanks. (Hubbert's Peak) I don't think the oil will ever run out. (Hey, where's ol' Die-off Jay? Keep him outta here!!) Which DOESN'T mean so let's burn the stuff like there's no tomorrow, get another SUV or two, and sod the climate. Just that it's not going to happen. What are we looking at, we'll go on roaring down the same old road all oblivious until suddenly there'll come a point where the last flow from the last well will sputter and die? Seven morose-looking Sisters will gather up their skirts and hie themselves to a nunnery, a Dick Cheney lookalike'll go on TV (driven by steam and a woodlot) and say, "Hey folks, that's it, sorry, back to the Stone Age, and, er, I got some second-hand menhirs cheap, if you're interested send me a pigeon", while the Gulf Arabs' negotiations on forming their new cartel, the Organization of Camel Exporting Countries, falter and run into the sand... Unless, that is, Dennis O'Lee in Ireland, with the help of a leprechaun and the Blarney Stone, succeeds as promised in converting his illicit Mountain Dew poteen still into a zero-point system to make endless energy for all and no pollution, with only a small commission to Dennis and the leprechaun. (Those of you holding your breath, I think you can let it out now.) http://enn.com/news/wire-stories/2002/01/01232002/reu_46213.asp Irish inventor says he's cracked world's energy needs Some past gleanings from the Bioenergy List Bioenergy <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/ "Oil Production -- According to the oil map on page 56, May 2000 Popular Science, world oil production will be down to half of what it is now by 2015. From there it just keeps going down until by 2050 production is down to 15% of present levels. More optimistic forecasts merely shift the time scale by a few years. Our own oil is nearly gone." -- Kermit Schlansker "How many billions of barrels could be brought to the surface in the US if oil prices were at $75 per bbl?" -- Kevin Chisholm "... excellent point. We tried to stabilize the price of Gold for years. Now its >200$ and mines are viable that weren't at $35/oz. Plus, many commercial processes that used Gold have found substitutes or ways to use less Gold. Gold-plated contacts are alloyed with Nickel to extend and strengthen the microlayer of Gold. Companies have arisen to reclaim Gold off e-scrap. Now, the analogy is obvious. If Gold were held at $35, then none of these measures would be existent. In the same way, tech-progress in energy has been halted due to cheap oil. I have no doubt whatsoever that inventors can come up with a way to make oil at $20-50 per barrel. So let the price rise. I hope oil goes to $200 per barrel." -- JB "US Department of State, "Energy Resources of the World", p. 71 - all known petroleum reserves would be exhausted in 25 years. Date of publication? 1949." -- N Yes, quite. Funny, that. An article I wrote in 1980 counted I think six previous such revisions following an oil "crisis". Doesn't include coal - there's still LOTS of coal. Good oil is easily produced from poor-quality coal (SASOL, eg). Then there's this: Earth Has More Oil Than Previously Estimated RESTON, Virginia, March 24, 2000 (ENS) - The latest U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessment of the world's oil and gas reserves estimates there is about 20 percent more undiscovered oil than previously believed. The agency also reports a slight decrease in estimates of undiscovered natural gas. The USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 estimates the volume of oil and gas, outside the U.S., that may be added to the world's reserves in the next 30 years. "There is still an abundance of oil and gas in the world," said Thomas Ahlbrandt, USGS World Petroleum Assessment project chief. "Since oil became a major energy source about 100 years ago, about 539 billion barrels of oil have been produced outside of the U.S. We now estimate the total amount of future technically recoverable oil, outside the U.S., to be about 2120 billion barrels." The assessment indicates that there is more oil and gas in the Middle East and in the offshore areas of western Africa and eastern South America than previously reported. There is less oil and gas in Canada and Mexico, and lower volumes of natural gas in the Former Soviet Union. The USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 is the first report to provide a rigorous geologic foundation for estimating undiscovered energy resources. The results have implications for energy prices, policy, security and the global resource balance. "These assessments provide a snapshot of current information about the location and abundance of undiscovered oil and gas resources at a point in history," said Gene Whitney, USGS Energy Team chief scientist. http://ens.lycos.com/ens/mar2000/2000L-03-24-09.html Which also keeps happening, somehow. Regarding this USGS study, Joshua Tickell said: "As of '97, we had extracted 807 billion barrels of oil and 995 billion barrels of extractable oil remained in the earth's crust. We're consuming 24 billion barrels a year with an annual consumption increase of 2%. Here's the key: there is another trillion barrels of oil buried under rock sediment and in other virtually inaccessible areas. The cost to extract it will equate in 2000 dollars to over $5 a gallon for gasoline at US pumps. The marginal utility of gasoline (the point at which the demand for gasoline begins to decline) is $3 a gallon. Who's going to extract oil they can't sell? The end of oil is not about geology, it's about profit margins." So, cut-off at $3. But Europeans pay about $4 or more, others pay a lot more. So that's a relative figure, not an absolute one. Anyway it's utility that matters, not price. Some cars now get 80 mpg, some more than that - that $5 a gallon at the pump might take you further than your $1.70 or whatever does now, maybe twice as far. If the gas costs twice as much but it takes you twice as far, who'll even notice? So no cut-off at $3. As for the vast amounts of oil under the rocks and the shale and so on, shortly after Joshua wrote that some scientists announced promising new techniques for getting the oil out of the shale at economic prices. "Virtually inaccessible" is another movable feast, as is "extractable". Then there are the revelations, previously posted to the list several times, that the real cost of US oil is about $100 a barrel, once you include all the hidden subsidies, the cost of defending (?) the Middle East supplies, and so on. How about shifting some of those wasted bucks towards more positive ends, like conservation measures and renewable energy? Various studies have shown that investments in both conservation and renewables can pay off handsomely, boosting the economy and creating many jobs - unlike hidden subsidies for oil. Unlike, too, Mr Bush's energy plans: http://enn.com/news/wire-stories/2002/01/01232002/reu_46215.asp "Bush energy plan said to help industry, not public": WASHINGTON, January 23, 2002, Reuters - The Bush administration's energy plan will make the U.S. economy more dependent on oil and was designed to help Enron and oil companies, not the American public, a Democratic senator said Tuesday. [more] Anyway, all the perils and pitfalls of prediction aside, the whole matter of future oil supplies is intensely political, whoever's projections they might be there's immense pressure to nudge them this way or that. Whatever the case, virtually everyone outside the US, including the OECD, agrees that US oil is way too cheap. And virtually everyone outside the OECD would agree that the rich countries simply have to change their ways. Look at these figures: USA Per Capita Energy Consumption: 355.9 million Btu Per Capita Carbon Emissions: 5.5 metric tons of carbon Number of People per Motor Vehicle: 1.3 France Per Capita Energy Consumption: 173.5 million Btu Per Capita Carbon Emissions: 1.8 metric tons of carbon Number of People per Motor Vehicle: 1.9 Japan Per Capita Energy Consumption: 171.6 million Btu Per Capita Carbon Emissions: 2.4 metric tons of carbon Number of People per Motor Vehicle: 1.8 Australia Per Capita Energy Consumption: 249.8 million Btu Per Capita Carbon Emissions: 4.9 metric tons of carbon Number of People per Motor Vehicle: 1.7 India Per Capita Energy Consumption: 12.3 million Btu Per Capita Carbon Emissions: 0.25 metric tons of carbon Number of People per Motor Vehicle: 142.9 Sudan Per Capita Energy Consumption: 2.3 million Btu Per Capita Carbon Emissions: 0.04 metric tons of carbon Number of People per Motor Vehicle: 100 Nepal Per Capita Energy Consumption: 2.3 million Btu Per Capita Carbon Emissions: 0.04 metric tons of carbon Number of People per Motor Vehicle: N/A On a per capita basis, the US uses 5.4 times more than its fair share of the world's energy, France 2.8 times its share, Japan 2.7 times its share, Australia 3.8 times its share. India uses one-fifth of its fair share, Sudan less than one-fifth its share, Nepal less than one-fifth its share. The average American uses twice as much energy as the average European or Japanese and 155 times as much as the average Nepalese. Do we really think things can go on like this? They can't, and they won't. I reckon we're clever little monkeys - often too clever for our own good maybe, but clever enough anyway, and this problem isn't beyond us. It might indeed seem to be beyond our (?) governments, our institutions, our (heh!) corporations, but it isn't beyond us ordinary humans. Fifteen years ago the environment and environment issues just didn't matter a damn. Everyone conceded that, yes, the environment's important, of course it is, but in the real world we have to be practical... Now it's a matter of gigabucks - politicians, economists, corporations, governments that don't pay heed to environment issues pay the consequences. Environmental cost-accounting is firmly on the table and won't go away - externalising the costs as of yore becomes more and more difficult. The precautionary principle is here to stay and steadily gathers strength. In 1985 few predicters predicted this would happen. The alleged end of oil is decades away, it's hard to see what consumer perceptions will be like then, as well as mpg. Or what teeth things like the Kyoto Protocol will have grown. The kids have turned into environmentalists, though who knows what they'll be like when they're adults. More and more people hate cars. This site is full of ammunition for people who hate cars: http://www.rco.on.ca/factsheet/fs_b02.html In the end, soil is far more important than oil - now we mine soil fertility in the same way we mine oil, thus turning it into an all-too-finite resource. Unlike oil though, soil can and should be husbanded, not mined: it then still has finite limitations, but we're far from reaching them. Healthy soil can produce a huge amount of energy, indefinitely, without depletion, as long as there's a sun to shine on green leaves. Add solar power, wind, and human ingenuity and the only real problem left is the lack of political will. That's our business, eh? We ordinary humans can see to that. Best Keith Addison Journey to Forever Handmade Projects Tokyo http://journeytoforever.org/ ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> Get your FREE credit report with a FREE CreditCheck Monitoring Service trial http://us.click.yahoo.com/ACHqaB/bQ8CAA/ySSFAA/FGYolB/TM ---------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Please do NOT send "unsubscribe" messages to the list address. To unsubscribe, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
