Jon Bosak wrote:
First, I don't think that bankruptcies in the grocery trade have anything to do with food shortages. No doubt food shortages are in our future, but that's not happening here yet. I suspect rather that P&C has simply fallen a victim to the notoriously thin margins in the retail food business. When food prices start to go up, the stores may actually do better financially.
It's P&C's third bankruptcy within a few years - I think they have their own crises.
Which isn't to say that it's a bad idea to start growing some of your own food; quite the contrary. It would be great to see a return of the local seed distribution system we had going in Ithaca a few years ago.
This part I think makes great sense, whatever comes next. I have a few disagreements with Jon about the rest:
Second, I am (very reluctantly) coming to the conclusion that a return to local markets is off the table for most people in the county. I can see a few returning to certain neighborhoods in the city of Ithaca itself, but the energy already invested in the big box stores and the increasing cost of energy that would be required to replace them with something else means that we're probably stuck with them.
If these were buildings meant for the ages, I'd find it easier to agree, but they're largely piles of cinderblock with flat roofs poorly suited to our climate and vast parking lots subject to potholes. Remarkably, of course, people often tear down buildings meant for the ages and patch up the junk, so that may not matter.
My guess is that the rising cost of fuel won't recreate local stores (except as indicated before in a few places in town) but will rather recreate a 19th century shopping model where people visit the shopping centers once every week (or every two weeks, or every month) to stock up on supplies and otherwise stay close to home. In other words, I suspect that the path of least energy investment going forward is the elimination of single-occupancy daily shopping trips rather than the construction of new stores within walking distance of most people. I think that the helpful way to plan for this is to design the public transit system to make this traditional shopping pattern as easy as possible for people living outside the city.
I think you're likely right about central markets remaining important, though I suspect we'd return to something like the city-village-hamlet- neighborhood structure of the days before cars. The city would offer more of the items worth traveling for weekly or monthly, while more local places would have the staples worth getting daily. That's a different model that the "local is exciting" I'm happy to support in brighter times, though.
I also suspect that the nature of that central market will change. Big boxes aren't merely about our willingness to drive great distances to them. They also rely on very sophisticated logistics systems to keep track of what's selling where, ensuring that it gets replenished, and adjusting to changing customer interests. These systems are amazing, but I'm far from certain they'll be able to adapt to higher energy costs.
That makes me suspect that while there will be central markets, they won't necessarily be run by single large operations the way Wal-Marts, Targets, or even Wegmans are now.
There's nothing inherently bad about going to the central market once every week or two to do one's shopping; the sad part is that the central market has to be something like Wal-Mart. Anyone who's visited cities in Latin America or some places in Europe knows that central markets can be vibrant, socially enriching places. If the people planning the reorganization of the Ithaca Commons understood what was in store for us, they'd be planning to put something like a Latin American central market there rather than trying to cater to the tourists who will be coming through here in decreasing numbers as fuel prices rise.
This sounds more workable to me than a simple continuation of big box store models.
-- Simon St.Laurent http://simonstl.com/ _______________________________________________ For more information about sustainability in the Tompkins County area, please visit: http://www.sustainabletompkins.org/ RSS, archives, subscription & listserv information for: [email protected] http://lists.mutualaid.org/mailman/listinfo/sustainabletompkins Questions about the list? ask [email protected] free hosting by http://www.mutualaid.org
