Hi,
I'm catching up on all the svg postings and a bit surprised at
the viability concerns.
In the larger picture the obvious trend is toward open standards. Corporate
enterprise has suddenly discovered open source and open source thrives on
open standards. The first generation of standalone software has reached its
peak and now the next generation of internet services is just beginning to
take off, enabled in large part by XML.
First generation software companies like Microsoft, Adobe, Oracle, Autodesk.
are rightly concerned about next generation trends but are locked into a
balancing act with older revenue models. In the short term the first
generation is still struggling for dominance among themselves, but in the
long term they surely see the real question is how to survive the transition
into a fully connected world where revenue models look more like Google than
boxed software and annual per seat licensing. Software as web service is the
rising tide, Open Source is the long term competitor, and the standards that
give open source a foot in the door also appear threatening.
It is interesting to remember how a company like IBM completely renovated
itself by emphasizing its intellectual capital and embracing service
solutions instead of product. First generation software companies are all
facing a similar dilemma and realize that long term survival will depend on
some kind of remake revolving around a fully connected world economy.
Control is already slipping out of their hands only moments after they
achieved dominance in the previous generation. It remains to be seen which
are paranoid enough to be major players in 10 years, but the bottom line is
that survivors will be forced into the open standards world they currently
find threatening.
Adobe hires smart people, they know that MS Xaml/Metro is their immediate
threat, but I'm sure they are also wondering how to reconcile flash/pdf with
svg/fo. In the end they have to know XML wins, so there is little incentive
to abandon svg, though they may be tempted to adapt it ala Xaml. Any which
way XML makes it an open world from a developer's point of view.
The adoption of svg-t in the mobile arena, the release of native svg in
Firefox and Opera all indicate the health of open XML standards. The pent up
demand for internet vector graphics will continue to grow and open standards
that allow world wide connectivity have a bright future.
In the meantime we all just try to make a living :-)
randy
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