THANK YOU. Sheesh. > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > dx.com] On Behalf Of Rob de Santos > Sent: Saturday, September 20, 2008 7:31 PM > To: 'Shortwave programming discussion' > Subject: Re: [Swprograms] RNW to end shortwave usage to North America > > My problem with all this doom and gloom is that it ignores history. Yes, > societies succeed and fail (but others, at the same time, were doing just fine, > thank you). Yes, sometimes things take a step backward before they go forward. > Economic crises occur because humans sometimes make mistakes or see their > situation in negative economic terms, whether it is or isn't. And yes, we have > the capability to destroy ourselves if we so choose. (And have since way before > July, 1945.) Yes, disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes happen. (Hmm, > maybe I should write a book on the "Coming Earthquake in California". Oh, > sorry, been done.) > > What it misses is that technology development and knowledge accelerates. > Nevertheless, predictions of the end appear every time there is some sort of > domestic or international crisis. In my not quite half century I've heard it at > least a dozen times. About every 4 years, I think. I imagine if we go back to > 1961, 1939, 1929, 1914, etc. we could find many more examples. The probability > of the human race wiping itself out is not zero. It's also not one or anywhere > close to it. > > Economic demand will make alternate sources of energy used and workable if oil > ceases to be available. Will there be societal disruption as some jobs are > created while others disappear? Yep. Will new technology shift demand to new > products from old ones? Yep. (Ask owners of conventional phone lines... just a > few years ago there were dire predictions of economic disaster if we didn't > change the telephone systems because we were running out of phone numbers due to > computers and fax machines. Now those lines are freeing up so fast they can't > be sold.) > > So, nothing that has happened in the past year (high oil prices, natural > disasters, financial crises) is new. It has happened before and will again. > So, unless an external event such as an asteroid hit occurs or the Gospel > huxters prove correct and a God gets even with us, human society will still be > here tomorrow. Whether you, or I, or our shortwave radios are here or not. > > -- > -Rob de Santos > > -----Original Message----- > From: Scott Royall [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Saturday, September 20, 2008 7:08 PM > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; 'Shortwave programming discussion' > Subject: Re: [Swprograms] RNW to end shortwave usage to North America as ofthe > B-08 schedule change > > Yes Kevin, I pretty much knew what you were thinking. Notice that I am not > really dismissing your scenario, because such thinking has been part of > humanity since we crawled down from the trees. My own belief is that such > scenarios come from the same part of our brains that manufactures religions. > It's as if we can't accept that we are worthy in our own right to be the > dominant species. We keep expecting the other giant shoe to drop on us. > > One of the problems I have with such dire scenarios is that they don't ever > follow through to the logical conclusion. Why would a downward spiral stop > with 1920 technology? Of course it wouldn't, because it's going to build up > momentum. there is no way for 1920s technology to support six billion people > so there would be an inevitable mass die-off, collapsing governments to > little more than city-states. Do I need to tell you what that would do for > metal prices? The ability to produce would quickly evaporate, and I've > already seen a report of a tower being stolen for its metal. In your > nightmare scenario, nobody would be inclined to broadcast to other states; > the far more likely response would be to nuke those perceived as threats. > That would thereby complete our slide to the Dark Ages. > > The drawback of any nightmare scenario is the ignorance of the fact that the > Dark Ages was the last era where we had technology that individuals could > maintain completely independently. That's why it's the only honestly likely > stop to any full-scale global collapse. As I see it, we're going up a steep > and slippery road with the Dark Ages in our mirror. That's where we'll end > up again if we start seriously sliding. > > As a post-script to the above, I'm writing this in dying light. My house > still doesn't have main power after hurricane Ike. Would you like to guess > which devices are still going? Yes, the battery-powered digital stuff. I do > have enough of a generator to keep them fed, but their analog counterparts > don't do enough to justify charging them. Of course, this is not your > nightmare scenario, but I find it telling. > > > _______________________________________________ > Swprograms mailing list > [email protected] > http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/swprograms > > To unsubscribe: Send an E-mail to [EMAIL PROTECTED] > dx.com?subject=unsubscribe, or visit the URL shown above.
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