Thanks for running those numbers Mark. I've tried to recreate the same thing using the sync_summary_v2 derived dataset in re:dash. I suspect that since you're pulling raw pings perhaps we should trust those more... but I could be wrong. for comparison, below are the analogous numbers I'm getting from re:dash (https://sql.telemetry.mozilla.org/queries/38529). they are based on the entire sync_summary_v2 dataset for the past 7 days.
version counts prop 48 1 0 50 47,569 0.01 51 53,285 0.01 52 500,793 0.06 53 136,974 0.02 54 906,476 0.11 55 5,987,420 0.76 56 92,960 0.01 57 19,784 0 so, according to these numbers versions 52 and up should cover 98.7% . that's pretty close to what Mark estimates. however I have a couple questions/comments: 1. Mark you said that your numbers are based on a 10% sample, yet they seem to be around the same order of magnitude as my numbers. as far as i know sync_summary_v2 is not a sampled dataset, so do we know what the difference there might be? 2. Apparently we didn't land any client-side telemetry for sync until version 47 or so (i think?). that means that when we count users based on FxA (not sync) stats, we will see a longer tail of users with older versions. so when making this decision maybe we should pay attention to that? with that in mind here are the comparable numbers for the FxA data. I omitted ios devices and versions with only 1 user: https://sql.telemetry.mozilla.org/queries/38604 version counts prop 40 and below 57,869.00 0.01 41.00 15,443.00 0.00 42.00 14,849.00 0.00 43.00 37,472.00 0.00 44.00 17,411.00 0.00 45.00 55,595.00 0.01 46.00 21,085.00 0.00 47.00 108,109.00 0.01 48.00 113,114.00 0.01 49.00 68,451.00 0.01 50.00 81,087.00 0.01 51.00 82,610.00 0.01 52.00 626,233.00 0.06 53.00 207,903.00 0.02 54.00 1,037,261.00 0.10 55.00 7,741,729.00 0.74 56.00 153,630.00 0.01 57.00 32,955.00 0.00 Here, 52 and up covers only 93.5% of users. to cover 99% we would need to go back to 43. to cover ~97%, version 48. hope that helps! -Leif On Mon, Sep 18, 2017 at 12:55 AM, Mark Hammond <[email protected]> wrote: > On 18/09/2017 10:20 AM, Ryan Kelly wrote: > > On 15 September 2017 at 10:35, Alex Davis <[email protected] > > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > > > > If we were more aggressive and did 52, we'd cover 87.7% of > > users... which seems *too* aggressive but perhaps we can see if > > we can try to nudge people to upgrade first. > > > > > > I'd like to make a correction. It's 92.62% of users that are 52 or > > higher. > > > > > > That does seem aggressive, but we could also consider a nuanced approach > > to phasing out support, because we have the following possibilities for > > what "removing support" means: > > I'm slightly skeptical of that data (although a quick look doesn't make > it clear there's anything wrong with it, if there actually is) - but my > understanding has always been that the uptake of new Firefox versions is > slower than we'd like, but generally successful within the 6 week cycle. > > By contrast, if I look at 10% of all desktop Firefoxes that submitted a > sync ping in the last 7 days I get: > > 49 - 1, 0.00 > 50 - 26527, 0.34 > 51 - 27602, 0.35 > 52 - 419814, 5.31 > 53 - 56468, 0.71 > 54 - 257171, 3.26 > 55 - 7002788, 88.63 > 56 - 83928, 1.06 > 57 - 26413, 0.33 > > so in that 10% sample, there was exactly 1 version 49. Looking at 52 > (current ESR) and up gives ~99.3% of all pings. > > https://gist.github.com/mhammond/46906eb3de269f3969e2fffc6dd801eb > > FWIW, going back 28 days (still a 10% sample) shows the same basic > pattern, although obviously 54 is higher due to it being the current > release for some of that period. > > 49 - 5, 0.00 > 50 - 109896, 0.36 > 51 - 117934, 0.39 > 52 - 1829602, 6.03 > 53 - 231241, 0.76 > 54 - 6847774, 22.58 > 55 - 20751445, 68.42 > 56 - 343482, 1.13 > 57 - 98950, 0.33 > > (this is the same gist as above, but ndays=28 instead of ndays=7) > > Mark > >
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