On December 21st, I posted a note about an article published on the IAAF website by Lennart Julin. In his study, he compared data on men's vaulting for the last five years to show there has been no demonstrable negative effect of the 2003 changes in cross-bar shape and peg length.
When I checked with Lennart as to whether he intended to follow with a similar comparison of women's marks from year to year, he replied that he did not. I'd like to use his approach, then, to look at a different question. The women's vault has only been contested as a World Championship or Olympic event since 1997. Not unexpectedly, this period has seen a rapid rise in the quality standards for international competition. I wondered what year-to-year comparison of marks necessary for various levels of world ranking might show about any slowing of this escalation. To make these comparisons, I used data from Mirko Jalava's World Deep Lists, published on his website at www.tilastopaja.net, to find the height necessary to top the world list each year and to rank 10th, 25th, 100th, and 250th. This is what the lists show: Rank 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Men 1 6.02 6.05 6.01 6.05 6.03 6.05 5.90 5.95 10 5.90 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.80 5.81 25 5.77 5.70 5.77 5.70 5.75 5.74 5.70 5.70 100 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.46 5.50 5.40 5.40 5.41 250 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.18 5.20 5.20 Women 1 4.45 4.55 4.59 4.60 4.70 4.81 4.78 4.82 10 4.14 4.20 4.35 4.40 4.50 4.51 4.52 4.60 25 4.00 4.05 4.16 4.25 4.35 4.36 4.40 4.40 100 3.60 3.75 3.87 3.95 4.04 4.05 4.10 4.10 250 3.30 3.40 3.55 3.70 3.78 3.80 3.84 3.90 As Julin had shown from the IAAF data, heights necessary for the various rankings of male vaulters are remarkably consistent from year to year, with no evidence that rules changes in 2003 have adversely affected heights. The women's data clearly demonstrate, at every level, the rapid improvements from 1996 to 2001. From year to year, these typically range from five to ten centimeters (2" to 4"). In 2001, though, there is a very evident reduction in the improvements. Stacy Dragila added another ten centimeters to her world record of the previous year, but otherwise, improvements in the standard for all other ranking levels are limited to one or two centimeters. That slowing is nearly as evident in 2002 and 2003, with perhaps an exception to be noted for the closely-contested top ten places in 2003. It will be interesting to watch results of the next (Olympic) year, to see whether this is a genuine plateau for the event or just a temporary aberration. For now, that first five-meter vault doesn't look as close as it did two years ago. Cheers, Roger
