Netters
Doing my best here...:)
20k predictions - let's see how well I know my event. We are now
about 3 -4 hours from what maybe the first final in track and field.
The nature of making predictions is a tricky one. It requires
research, an understanding of the event, knowing how athletes
have recently performed as opposed to what they did four or even
two years ago. It also requires that you don't become drawn in on
media hype or in some cases hype created by the athletes
themselves. You have to look at current trends how races were won
or lost and how a typical event might be raced. I take issue quite
often with predictions that are made by groups such as SI and T&F
News when they don't do the back ground work needed. Certainly
SI has no clue about racewalking - is there anyone out there who
really thinks that Curt will finish 3rd just because SI picked him
too? Or does anyone really believe they did any research on the
event at all? Of course not. At least T&F News listed races for the
athletes and best times - more then I expected. But even then they
went with the obvious choices. What bothers me about this is that
these sources are seen as credible sources by fans and people in the
sport, sometimes by the athletes themselves. In the event that Curt
doesn't win a bronze how will this be percieved: as Curt not living
up to his potential or SI doing bad Journalism. Well, ok, so we
already know SI is bad journalism. Predictions play with real
people's lives there familys, hopes and dreams. Best to be as real as
possible about these things. So here then are my thoughts of who
will medal, who will be close and how the races will go.
First you have to look at how a race might go and how fast it will
take to get a medal. Most of the past Olympics have been more
tactical races, involving heat and difficult courses. The hill in
Barcelona and the heat - Atlanta's trashy course. Seoul was a flat
fast course. Then you have to look at how the next closest race in
format. That would be the World Championships. Same Standard,
Same number of athletes from each country as opposed to World
Cup which is twice as many athletes in usually what is considered a
walkers race meaning they go. For walking the next most
important event is anything European. The Pan AM, Asian games
and other regionals can tell you little about the world scene
compared to the Euros.
Typically World Champs and Olympic races are won in slower times
them say World Cup. Being able to win a race at 1:21 is whole lot
different then trying to win at 1:18. This Olympics might be
different. I think we will see an Olympic record in this race. The
race starts out on the track 5 laps or 10% of the race. Then goes out
1 k two a 2k loop, 8 loops then back with 100m to finish on the track.
I can almost guarantee there will be no dq's in the stadium. With
the Electronic system in place the head Judge will pull anyone off
the course during the last K.
I think the winning time is going to be right around 1:18:45. The
course is rolling so it will favour athletes with excellent technique.
The first 2k k will be around 7:55 with 48 men in the race that is
going to be on tight pack as the last place guys will certainly come
through in 8:50 at least. I expect this to be a continually
accelerating race with each 5k split faster. Look for the first 5k in
19:50 followed by a 19:40 for 39:30 10k. At this point the breaks will
begin. the first will come at 10k when someone from a Former
Russian republic will bolt. By 12k he will be swallowed by the pack
with another break at 12k. But 10 and 12k are too early to move
hard in a race like this. Anyone making the early break will be
caught within 2k. At 14k is where it get serious. The winner will be
in that group because at that point A GROUP of 5 will open up a
lead. That group will have Jefferson Perez in it. In 96 and then 97
World cup Jefferson hung with that group until 2k to go and then
blew everyone away with his style and speed. The other athletes
have learned that and he hasn't been able to pull it off since.
Someone, probably 3 will make a huge break at 16k. In that group
will be Robert Korzeniowski Roman Rasskazov and Andreas Erm
The MAN to beat is going to be:
Robert Korzeniowski! His year has been incredible he walked two
1:18's within weeks of each other and hasn't lost a race since his DQ
at worlds last Year - and what of that DQ? It is interesting to note
that Robert's two DQ's Since 92 have come in Spain. He won't be
Dqed here and he knows how to win slow and fast race. He is
capable of making a move as far out as 14k because he also happens
to be the best 50k man in the world too.
Time 1:18:45
Second place to Rasskazov if he stays out of judging trouble. His
1:18:07 is for real but that 1:17 he did was on a suspect course.
time 1:18:55
Bronze the German Erm
time 1:19:10
4th to Jefferson. Jefferson announced this is going to be his last
race. My experience says that once you said when your last race will
be, then you have already had it. Time:1:19:30
5th Markov - too banged up from a car accident to finish like he did
in Atlanta. 1:19:50
6. Francisco Fern�ndez - fast but will need 18:15 speed to walk with
the top guys and doesn't have it. 1:20:05
The Mexicans will be hard pressed to put up their usual
performances. Dissent between rival group has caused problems
for them and typically the Mexicans don't race real well after August.
How does Tim Seaman Stand up? Well Tim is capable of walking
about a 1:22:30 on a good day - his PR's at 5 and 10k indicate he
hasn't lived up to his abilities at 20k but they don't indicate he is
capable of a 1:21 either. Also Tim has a major knock against him -
he has yet to have a good race wearing a U.S. Uniform. I think he
will break that this time. In talking to him over the last few weeks
he is positive, fit and healthy and well coached. I think he'll walk
1:22:30 or so and be 18-22 place wise. If he does that it will be a
great race for him. Good will be top 30 farther out than that and
Tim will have to do some soul searching.
Finally, lest anyone think I am being "unsupportive" or some other
such nonsense, think Again. I'd like nothing better to see the boy
crying on the podium!
Good Training,
Michael Rohl
