Amazing consistency indeed! good post. I guess since the WR was set with a 2:46+ at 1200m split ... then if you are 2:46-high at 1200m it is not hyperbole for the announcer to state that "he's on WR pace" ... Additionally, since nobody has probably EVER run 2:45+ at 1200m and still carried on to a sub-3:30 (indeed probably carried on at all) ... then something in the area of 2:46.00-.99 for 1200m has a reasonable shot at a 3:25.99 WR. 2:46.00 (55.33 a lap) + 39.99 (53.33 pace for 400m) = 3:25.99 With enough pressure (and fitness) on that last lap (like El G's 3:43.13 mile), he is capable of low-53 pace at the end. WR pace in the 1500m is now 54.93 per 400m (2:44.8 for an even-pace 1200m split). I think the next WR set might require a 2:45-high at 1200m despite what I wrote above. How long will it be until we see a 3:25? With El G likely moving up, and not having run within 2 seconds of the 1500/mile WRs this year, he may never do it. It looks like Ali S-S's career may be over as soon as it got started. Ngeny has taken a page from the Dan Komen playbook. Lagat is only 26, but 3:25 seems like a lot of improvement from current level. Thoughts? /Brian McEwen -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Sunday, August 19, 2001 7:57 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: t-and-f: El G's pace in Zürich On the Z telecast, they said words to the effect of "he's on WR pace" when he hit the 1200 point in 2:46.90, and at that juncture I realized I wasn't really hip as to what WR pace was in the 1500. In a quick run through the all-time list, I note that El G has gone through the 1200 faster than that on at least 5 occasions. Here's his 12 fastest races ever (Z being No. 12), with 1200 splits unavailable for a pair of them. His consistency in his fastest races (over four seasons) is pretty remarkable. Note that he has always been in the lead at that point. Columns are the time, the date, the 1200 split and his time for the final 300. Zürich was easily his slowest finish ever, and it certainly showed in the final 100m. 3:26.00 El Guerrouj 7/14/98 (2:46.34) (39.66) 3:26.45 El Guerrouj 8/12/98 (2:46.49) (39.96) 3:27.21 El Guerrouj 8/11/00 (2:46.22) (40.99) 3:27.65 El Guerrouj 8/24/99 (2:46.79) (40.86) 3:28.21 El Guerrouj 7/7/99 (2:47.0) (41.2) 3:28.37 El Guerrouj 8/8/98 (2:47.92) (40.45) 3:28.38 El Guerrouj 7/6/01 (unknown) (?) 3:28.57 El Guerrouj 8/11/99 (2:46.61) (41.96) 3:28.91 El Guerrouj 8/13/97 (2:48.24) (40.67) 3:28.92 El Guerrouj 8/22/97 (2:47.04) (41.88) 3:29.05 El Guerrouj 8/23/96 (unknown) (?) 3:29.06 El Guerrouj 8/17/01 (2:46.90) (42.16) And here's what Morceli, the fastest non-EG guy ever, did in his two best races (the fastest the previous WR): 3:27.37 Morceli 7/12/95 (2:47.1) (40.3) 3:27.52 Morceli 7/24/95 (2:47.26) (40.26) gh (eager to spark a conversation on anything but furshlugginer drug topics!)
