I don't understand why Black Swans should be impossible to model effectively. I've read neither "Fooled by Randomness" nor "The Black Swan", so maybe I don't know what a "Black Swan" is, but my naive impression is that they are rare-but-important-events. If this is the case then mightn't we guesstimate their frequency with some, presumably low, confidence due to their elusive nature, and incorporate that belief into our model? --J P.S.-- I am assuming a Bayesian paradigm. On Sun, Apr 5, 2009 at 12:00 PM, <[email protected]> wrote:
> Send tahoe-dev mailing list submissions to > [email protected] > > To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit > http://allmydata.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/tahoe-dev > or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to > [email protected] > > You can reach the person managing the list at > [email protected] > > When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific > than "Re: Contents of tahoe-dev digest..." > > > Today's Topics: > > 1. Re: Josh's would-be GSoC proposal (Shawn Willden) > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Message: 1 > Date: Sat, 4 Apr 2009 18:22:09 -0600 > From: Shawn Willden <[email protected]> > Subject: Re: [tahoe-dev] Josh's would-be GSoC proposal > To: [email protected] > Message-ID: <[email protected]> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > On Friday 03 April 2009 05:25:45 pm zooko wrote: > > Shawn looked at the "The Black Swan", but I think he decided that he > > knew where it was going after reading only a part of it. > > No, I didn't. I just commented that in the introduction the author seemed > to > miss the forest for the trees. After reading further, he doesn't, he was > just oversimplifying for the purposes of introducing the concepts. > > It's an interesting book. The sorts of failures I worked on trying to > model > are firmly in "Mediocristan", though. That doesn't rule out the > possibility > of Black Swan failure events, but by definition they're impossible to model > effectively. The solution is to model what we can, and to treat the > results > as an upper bound on reliability. > > Shawn. > > > ------------------------------ > > _______________________________________________ > tahoe-dev mailing list > [email protected] > http://allmydata.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/tahoe-dev > > > End of tahoe-dev Digest, Vol 25, Issue 4 > **************************************** > -- "... it didn't read like someone out to carve a headstone for humanity." --The Nite Owl http://allmydata.org At the edge Symbols become subtleties Consensus Conceptions Where we dance ZZ --> <esc>:wq Hacking --> Yacking --> Yakking --> .... --> Yak-Wrangling
_______________________________________________ tahoe-dev mailing list [email protected] http://allmydata.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/tahoe-dev
