I was running the online reliability tool and hit a weird result. If you take the default numbers and change the report_span from 5Y to 50Y the unmaintained numbers get better over time. At 17 years we have a 60% of losing data, but by the end of the period the probability drops to 2%.
I assumed these numbers are the expectation that I file would last to that period, but it looks more like the derivative of that and just gives the odds that a file will be lost in each 3M period. http://pubgrid.tahoe-lafs.org/reliability/?drive_lifetime=8Y&k=3&R=7&N=10&delta=1M&check_period=1M&report_period=3M&report_span=50Y -Wayne
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