I am able to connect. You didn't say what kind of computer you are using, but I would (on NetBSD, which probably isn't what you have :-) run
fstat # and then grep out the python process, I think lsof on linux netstat -f inet -n # and look for 50528 tcpdump port 50528 to see what's going on. It's quite possible that you are afflicted by a draconian firewall, and that tahoe itself is behaving properly. tahoe will cope with outbound-only nat, but then you can only take storage and not reciprocate.
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