Merci Sev de nous tenir informer... On Jul 8, 2013 5:12 PM, "Severin MENARD" <[email protected]> wrote:
> Le message de ce matin se confirme pourl a violence des pluies et des > vents. > Le parcours: > http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/204055.shtml?3-daynl > > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > From: GovDelivery Weather Updates <[email protected]> > Date: Mon, Jul 8, 2013 at 5:00 PM > Subject: Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4 > To: [email protected] > > > [image: NWS Banner] > > *You are subscribed to NHC Wind Speed Probabilities (Atlantic) for NOAA's > National Weather Service.* > *GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products.* > > Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number > 4<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAPWSAT3.shtml> > 07/08/2013 04:40 PM EDT > > > 000 > FONT13 KNHC 082040 > PWSAT3 > > TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 > NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 > 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 > > AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR > LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED > WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. > > Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) > ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME > EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME > CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME > > > I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE > > CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF > THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES > AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. > PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS > THAN 1 PERCENT. > > > - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - > > VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT > FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - > DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 11 28 30 > TROP DEPRESSION 5 8 8 13 29 38 37 > TROPICAL STORM 92 78 68 57 53 32 32 > HURRICANE 4 13 23 27 7 2 1 > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - > HUR CAT 1 3 12 19 22 7 2 1 > HUR CAT 2 1 1 3 4 1 X X > HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X X > HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X > HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - > FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 45KT 30KT 30KT > > > II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS > > CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST > ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... > ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... > ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... > FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS > > PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE > IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING > AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) > (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN > 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) > > PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT > X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT > PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN > THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. > PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE > PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. > > > - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - > > FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM > TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI > PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO > 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT > > FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - > LOCATION KT > > FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) > > W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) > > MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) > > MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) > > GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) > > NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) > > ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) > > GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 1(19) > > SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 2(17) > > MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) 1(24) > MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) > > GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23) > GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) > > CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) > > GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) X(24) > GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) > GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) > > KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) > > LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) > LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) > LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) > > PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) X(40) X(40) > PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) > PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) > > CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 19(37) 1(38) X(38) > CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) > CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) > > PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 33(46) X(46) X(46) > PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) > PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) > > SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 47(49) 13(62) X(62) X(62) > SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) > SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) > > PONCE 34 X X( X) 22(22) 22(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) > PONCE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) > PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) > > SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 18(18) 10(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) > > SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) > > SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) > > SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) > > ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) > > BARBUDA 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) > > ANTIGUA 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) > > GUADELOUPE 34 X 23(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) > > AVES 34 X 6( 6) 71(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) > AVES 50 X X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) > AVES 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) > > DOMINICA 34 X 58(58) 7(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) > DOMINICA 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) > > MARTINIQUE 34 X 78(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) > MARTINIQUE 50 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) > MARTINIQUE 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) > > SAINT LUCIA 34 X 52(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) > SAINT LUCIA 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) > SAINT LUCIA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) > > SAINT VINCENT 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) > > BARBADOS 34 1 41(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) > BARBADOS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) > > $$ > FORECASTER STEWART > > > [image: Bookmark and > Share]< > http://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USNWS/bulletins/82a5ae?reqfrom=share > > > ------------------------------ > > To change your subscriptions or preferences log in to your Subscriber > Preferences Page< > https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USNWS/subscriber/new?preferences=true > >with > your e-mail address. > > Delete profile< > https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USNWS/subscriber/one_click_unsubscribe?verification=5.d86969daad3b17f0de78222447a3e447&[email protected] > > > > For questions or problems with the subscription service, please contact > [email protected]. > > > *The use of the logo does not imply an endorsement by the NOAA/NWS* > ------------------------------ > GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products. ยท > 1-800-439-1420 <http://www.govdelivery.com/portals/powered-by> > _______________________________________________ > Talk-ht mailing list > [email protected] > http://lists.openstreetmap.org/listinfo/talk-ht > Notez! 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