On Mon, 22 Mar 2004 12:36:29 -0600 (GMT-06:00) Tom Searles
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
The redesign of the Crosstown and 35W junction is complete.
Construction is expected to begin in 2006 and take 4 years to complete.
http://www.startribune.com/stories/462/4677309.html
"One big question about the revised design: Will it continue to
handle traffic, without congestion, in years to come?
To answer that question, MnDOT shows computer simulations of how
traffic will move in 2030. Steadily moving dots on a computer screen
indicate that 25 years from now, drivers will not encounter congestion at
the junction of the Crosstown and I-35W."
REPLY:
I am sure that the assumptions that built the database that ran the
animation was done with the best information available within the last
two to three years.
Having worked with databases and projections since 1979, I am
relatively confident that today's best information will be nearly
worthless in five years.
There are several likely assumptions that would not have been used:
1. The United States may not be able to buy imported petroleum at
any price by 2008. Political embargoes or switch to EURO for oil trading
standard or both. Result: No dots moving past the junction.
2. Environmental refugees will create a major spike in area
population beginning no later than 2020. Result: Possible stopped dots at
the junction and a lots of other places by 2030.
3. U.S. economy continues the current structural change and
automobiles are no longer and affordable method of individual travel.
Results: A few rapidly moving dots past the junction.
4. All of the above. Result: Military vehicles and emergency supply
trucks may be the only dots on the road.
Although I do have confidence that MNDOT employees prepared the
database and model professionally, I have seen their excellent work
before, I don't think that we can remotely have confidence in any 25 to
30 year projection. That includes the four I have mentioned above, even
though they are also very likely.
Thanks.
John O'Neal
Northeast Minneapolis
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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