VoIP Growing Astronomically, $23.4 Billion By 2009 Projected
By W. David Gardner, TechWeb News
Already on a tear, VoIP service is predicted to grow 18-fold -- from $1.24
billion in 2004 to $23.4 billion in 2009 -- representing total revenues of
$62 billion to be spent on the technology over the five-year period,
according to a report released Wednesday.
The figures were contained in a report from Infonetics that also predicted
24 million subscribers will be using VoIP service in 2008.
In an interview, Kevin Mitchell, Infonetics principal analyst, Service
Provider Next Gen Voice & Mobile Core, noted that Vonage leads the
residential and SoHO VoIP subscriber market with 32 percent market share.
The report marks movement among the top three providers. Vonage, the
leader, with more than one million subscribers, has seen its market share
drop to 32 percent from 36 percent in the first quarter of 2005.
Cablevision dropped to 19 percent market share from 21 percent. Time Warner
Cable, on the other hand, has been gaining, from 21 percent in the first
quarter to 25 percent in the current report.
"Time Warner was playing around with VoIP for sometime," Mitchell said. "At
the end of last year they brought it out for full availability in all Time
Warner markets in their footprint. Time Warner has tens of millions of
cable subscribers."
Cable companies have an advantage in VoIP because many of their customers
already have broadband service, which is a necessary ingredient for VoIP.
Mitchell noted that other cable firms are likewise offering VoIP, albeit in
different flavors. Many cable firms are offering VoIP over antiquated TDM
technology.
Many VoIP users with cable-based systems may not even know they are calling
over VoIP, said Mitchell, observing that cable companies often market VoIP
using names such as "Digital Phone." Noting that cable companies spent
several months perfecting their VoIP offerings, Mitchell said marketing of
VoIP by cable firms has been gathering momentum in recent months.
The situation is different with telephone companies. "The Telcos," said
Mitchell, "will get there, but not as rapidly."
He explained that the major telephone companies are moving to introduce
fiber and that VoIP is likely to be increasingly used when fiber's
deployment is more widespread. Mitchell noted that large North American
telephone companies such as Verizon, Qwest, and Bell Canada offer VoIP
services and that the firms are learning from the early deployment of the
IP calling services.
Asked whether "VoIP filtering" -- nascent efforts to block VoIP -- would
likely impact the growth of VoIP, Mitchell said he doubted it. The outcry
from consumers, he explained, would be fierce at attempts to block VoIP,
and he didn't think entrenched telecom firms would attempt to block the
service anyway.
The Infonetics report did not include figures for Luxembourg-based Skype
Technologies, which specializes in international VoIP calling. Skype, which
is being acquired by eBay has more than 60 million subscribers.
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