To all; Very well stated Carl. We have a real need to return to the scientific method when considering data and making environmental policy decisions. Making assumptions, having feel good knee jerk reactions and using models does not yield the desired results in most cases. I'm still waiting for the global warming extremists to use data not obtained by modeling to support their arguments. Time to clean up the scientific act as well.
Bill ----- Original Message ----- From: Carl Pagano To: [email protected] Sent: Saturday, May 28, 2011 7:11 AM Subject: Re: [SWR] WNS To all: Having read the petition: By the time the lawyers line up, litigation takes place, etc. the disease will either have already spread to the west, or we'll have learned correctly that this petition is one of extremism, and that the spread of WNS cannot be stopped by the blanket closure of caves. External quarantine of cavers is easy. You cannot quarantine the bats living in the caves. Why is it, that these "scientists" cannot understand this? Bats move, just like people do, to better digs when they want to, incredibly, without the aid of any humans including lawyers or scientists with as yet unproven theories. Perhaps all who advocate the closure of caves without proving that it is spread by cavers should, to paraphrase the expression, "Wake Up, and Smell The Guano". This does include all BLM, Forest Service, and NPS officials who advocate only some cave closures (God forbid Carlsbad is EVER closed as $$$ are involved here), and the extremist scientists and litigation lawyers who advocate blanket closures and wrote the petition listed below. The petition does not show one bit of supportive scientific data regarding the spread by humans. To date during all of the posting on SWR about WNS, there has not been one bit of data, i.e. a study or otherwise, presented to conclusively and without a doubt, show that WNS is indeed spread by human traffic into caves. This would involve studying caves were there has not been any human traffic, i.e. a control group or subject. First, it would involve making an observation, that there is WNS in caves, which has been done, then asking a question; how is is spreading?, which has also been done. A hypothesis is then formed, in this case, that further infection of caves by WNS could be spread by humans. This is the last step that has been taken to my knowledge so far. The next step is to do an experiment, using a control and a study group. At this point, everything falls flat. To my knowledge, there has not been one valid experiment to conclusively show that WNS is spread by humans. Further, after the experiment is done, the conclusions presented must be able to be duplicated with the same results. This again, has not been done to my knowledge. It is only after all of these steps are taken, in exact order, that conclusions and valid, supported decisions can be made regarding cave closures. As such, without the use of and adherence to scientific method to prove or disprove that humans are in part, spreading WNS, the closure of any cave is invalid. To be very blunt to all those who advocate the closure of caves, either put up, or shut up. Prove the point, using valid scientific method. Until then the petition listed below is extremist, unsupported by any accompanying scientific data to prove or disprove that human traffic into caves is partially spreading WNS throughout U.S. caves. The unsupported petition in printed form is useful, but only for a camping colonic emergency. If the statements presented above are wrong, then prove them wrong, with valid, duplicated, supportive scientific data, here, on the SWR website. Carl..... On May 27, 2011, at 7:06 PM, [email protected] wrote: I might be behind the times on this but this was brought to my attention today. Looks like the efforts put forth by the BLM that most cavers disagreed with were still not enough for the Center for Biological Diversity. Their website also specifically sites BLM's unwillingness to institute a blanket closure. http://www.caves.org/WNS/CBD%20Bat_APA_Petition_NOI_5-25-11.pdf Aaron Sent on the Sprint® Now Network from my BlackBerry® _______________________________________________ SWR mailing list [email protected] http://caver.net/mailman/listinfo/swr_caver.net ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ _______________________________________________ SWR mailing list [email protected] http://caver.net/mailman/listinfo/swr_caver.net
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