*PAK- CHINA RELATIONS SANS THE PROPAGANDA* by Najam Sethi
THE THREE day visit of China’s prime minister Wen Jiabao to Pakistan in mid December has elicited the usual trumpets and mutual accolades about the everlasting “ friendship” between the two countries that is “ deeper than the ocean and warmer than the sun”. But it is important to sift propaganda from fact and friendship from interest. More critically, China’s political advice to Pakistan regarding “ neighbourhood diplomacy” must be seriously considered if regional strategic balances are to be maintained. The propaganda is that China’s premier brought along a 200- strong business delegation to sign MOUs worth US$ 35 billion with the public and private sector of Pakistan, creating the impression that a “ paradigm change” is underway whereby China is about to replace the West as the biggest “ foreign investor” and trading partner of Pakistan. The fact is that most of the MOUs are not worth the paper they are written on and Pakistani businessmen were hastily assembled at the last minute and mingled with their Chinese counterparts without having done any homework about mutually profitable projects. The fact is that China is neither making any significant foreign investments in Pakistan, nor handing out money to Pakistan. Only US$ 400 million was pledged as a “ soft loan” that is tied to a couple of projects like the Karakoram Highway that are of strategic importance to China itself and all the money will go to line the pockets of Chinese contractors and labour working on these projects. Only US$ 10 million has been coughed up for flood rehabilitation and reconstruction ( compare with US$ 300 million for the same cause by the United States). Noteworthy joint- venture projects inside Pakistan are conspicuous by their absence. The fact also is that China’s premier and businessmen were focused on India, their first stop- over, where they clinched agreements to raise the volume of their trade from US$ 60 billion to US$ 100 billion per year in the next few years. MOST CRITICALLY, the Pakistan government, political pundits and media know- alls have failed to highlight the core advice consistently given by China to Pakistan on how to conduct diplomacy in the neighbourhood. The Chinese proverb quoted by Mr Wen Jiabao that “ a ‘ distant neighbour’ is more important than a ‘ close relative’ has been interpreted to signify Pakistan’s “ closeness” to China, conveniently omitting to note the priceless value that China attaches to ‘ close neighbours’ in relation to ‘ close relatives’! Therefore it bears pointing out that China resolved a long time ago to compromise, settle or put in cold- storage its territorial border disputes with its ‘ close neighbours’, including the USSR, India, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Korea and normalise its relations with them so that mutually beneficial highways of trade and commerce could be built to create interdependencies, paving the way for reduction of trust deficits and settlement of thornier disputes. In the same spirit, China has constantly advised Pakistani governments and policy makers to put the dispute of Kashmir with India on the back burner and forge ahead with trade and commerce on the basis of interests and interdependencies, advice that the Pakistani military establishment has constantly spurned in favour of a sumzero conflict strategy that echoes the mantra: India must solve Kashmir to Pakistan’s satisfaction before relations can be normalised. No wonder, then, that when Dr Fehmida Mirza, the Speaker of the National Assembly, profusely thanked China for its unstinting support for Pakistan’s position on the Kashmir dispute ( words doubtless added to her speech by the “ ISI- led Mandarins of the Foreign Office), Mt Wen Jiabao consciously omitted any reference in his speech to Pakistan’s Kashmir dispute with India, a polite snub that was conveniently ignored by all and sundry! To be sure, of course, China’s “ friendship” with Pakistan is gratefully acknowledged, even if it serves China’s strategic interests more than ours. China has PROPAGANDA as it loaned Pakistan the money and manpower to build the Karakoram Highway and Gwador Port, both aimed at penetrating commercial markets in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia. CHINA has helped transfer technology to build second tier tanks and fighter aircraft in Pakistan but these have hardly offset our demand for higher tech weapons from the West like F- 16s, Cobra Helicopters and Agosta submarines, and front- line tanks from the Ukraine. China is helping Pakistan build nuclear reactors with Chinese loans and technical know- how even though there is some doubt about their true value to us both as suppliers of energy and plutonium for nuclear weapons ( our nuclear weapons program is based on enriched uranium). Significantly, China’s avowed pro- Pakistan tilt did not stop India from helping to dismember Pakistan in 1971, nor did it stop India from retaliating against Pakistani- provoked wars in 1965 and 1999. Pakistan’s real “ gain” from friendship with China is Beijing’s opposition to a permanent veto- empowered seat for India in the UN Security Council and its assistance in encouraging North Korea to part with missile technology for Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, both policies being firmly grounded in China’s own national security interests. China claims a “ strategic relationship” with both Pakistan and India. But Pakistan and India have no such claims on each other. Far from it, they are constantly hovering on the brink of conflict. This should serve as an eye- opener to Pakistan, especially in view of China’s burgeoning US$ 100 billion surplus trade relationship with India along with its stunning silence on the Kashmir dispute. The old adage is truer now than ever before: when push comes to shove, interests and not friendships matter in international relations. The writer is the editor of The Friday Times Pakistan.... -- With best wishes S Chander
