STATUS OF MEMORY

How confident are you? Why misinformation is quite wrong?

The *Mandela Effect* is a phenomenon whereby large numbers of people appear
to have the same memory that does not match reality. It’s name comes from
an allegedly common false ‘memory’: that former South African President
Nelson Mandela died in prison during the 1980s. In reality, he passed away
in 2013, long after his release from prison and after serving as President
of South Africa. The term ‘the Mandela Effect’ was coined by Fiona Broome,
a self-identified "paranormal consultant," who reported that she, along
with other people, appeared to share this incorrect “memory” of Mandela's
death. She proposed a rather spooky explanation for the phenomenon, which
we critically evaluate below.

So, is this effect real? If so, what causes it?

A recent study found evidence of a visual Mandela effect, reflecting
apparent *collective false memories of images.* In order to determine
whether an image counts as an instance of the Visual Mandela Effect,
researchers Prasad and Bainbridge have proposed the following criteria:

(a) People often mistake the fake version of the image for the real one
(low accuracy in identifying the correct image).

(b) There's a specific, common mistake people make with the image (like
thinking the Monopoly man has a monocle).

(c) Many people make the same mistake.

(d) Even if people say the correct image looks familiar, they still often
get it wrong.

(e) People are very confident in their wrong answers.

What explains the Mandela Effect?

Some people entertain quite fantastical explanations for the effect. For
instance, the self-identified ‘paranormal consultant’ who coined the term
‘Mandela Effect’ says (taken from her website):

"At first, I thought the only Mandela Effect was the curious coincidence of
others recalling what they’d believed was Nelson Mandela’s funeral, but in
the 1980s or 1990s. Once more stories and alternate memories started
flooding in, I started leaning in the direction of parallel realities. That
fits with some of my ghost research, and what other, similar investigators
have encountered, but aren’t always willing to speak about. Not in public,
anyway."

This appears to be an allusion to the theory that there is a universe in
which Nelson Mandela died in prison, and that we, somehow, have memories
from that alternate universe - perhaps because we have somehow crossed over
from that one into this one, where he survived and became President of
South Africa.

A popular theory among some people who like to discuss the Mandela Effect
(but not a popular theory among scientists) even goes so far as to suggest
that the mechanism for this changing of realities is the Large Hadron
Collider (particle accelerator) at CERN in Switzerland. On this view, when
the large hadron collider is turned on, we jump from one universe or
timeline into another and our reality changes.

We think the following explanation is much better.

Our brains use our existing knowledge and expectations to interpret new
experiences and encode memories. This can lead to memories being
unintentionally altered or distorted to fit our pre-existing beliefs and
assumptions about how things are supposed to be.

*A key factor in this is that memory is not a perfect recording device*.
When you remember something, you are not simply retrieving a recording that
was stored in your brain; *you are reconstructing* the event based on prior
experiences in a way that is subject to a variety of errors.

One such influence comes from schemas and stereotypes. We have mental
templates (schemas) about common objects, situations, and stereotypes that
can shape what details get noticed, encoded, and remembered versus which
ones get ignored or distorted.

So, you might think that the monopoly man once had a monocle (a common
example of the Visual Mandela Effect) because the schema or stereotype of a
wealthy man from that era whose attire displays his wealth includes a
monocle, and your brain draws on that knowledge when it reconstructs your
memory of the monopoly man. This would also explain why people have the
same false memory of the monopoly man (and other instances of the Mandela
Effect): because we all grow up learning many of the same stereotypes and
schemas from our culture(s).



In addition, memories (especially older ones) are highly malleable and *can
be reshaped by misleading information provided after the fact,* leading to
the creation of inaccurate or false memories. Plenty of experiments have
demonstrated this fact. A classic is Loftus and Palmer (1974), which showed
that the wording of a question can distorts eyewitness memory. Participants
watched a video of a car accident and were asked "About how fast were the
cars going when they smashed/collided/bumped/hit into each other?" Those
who heard the word "smashed" estimated higher speeds than those who heard
"bumped" and were more likely to falsely remember broken glass in the video
a week later.

One more factor potentially at work with the Mandela effect is compression.
If you go to a doctor’s office and then later try to recall what it looked
like, you might recall the windows had curtains, but not recall what sort, so
your brain quickly guesses with typical sorts of curtains. That is, our
brains quickly (and without us realizing) fill in unremembered details with
what’s typical based on experience. If the curtains were actually unusual,
this could make your memory inaccurate.

In next week’s newsletter, we’re going to offer a thorough comparison of
these two explanations, using philosophical principles of theory selection.
We’ll show, in detail, precisely why we think the psychological explanation
is better than the parallel worlds one, and a handy set of criteria for
comparing almost any types of theories to each other. So, keep an eye out
for that!   Never fabricate; Never allow memory to feed, a network of, your
own imaginary thoughts. Memory is smart if read, understand, and observe,
with the same interest you had once, forever.

K Rajaram IRS 12624 13624

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