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From: 'venkat giri' via iyer123 <[email protected]>
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2024 at 23:36
Subject: [iyer123] WORLD POPULATION
To: Iyer <[email protected]>
*Respected sir/s,*
*SUBJECT:** WORLD POPULATION*
*Cities around the world are experiencing significant increases in their
population.*
* The global population has reached an unprecedented level,
surpassing **8 billion people**. **According to projections by the United
Nations, the world population is expected **to grow by nearly 2 billion by
2050* *and could reach as high as* *10.4 billion by the mid-2080s.*
*This tremendous population growth can be attributed to various factors,
including advancements in healthcare, sanitation, and living conditions.
Mortality rates, particularly among infants and children, have decreased
globally, and the median age of the world population has steadily increased
over the past decades.*
* The World Population Review recently released a list of
the top 10 largest countries and cities by population as of 2024, further
highlighting this trend. *
* It** is no surprise that most of the world’s most populous cities
are located in* *China and India, **the two most densely populated
countries globally. **However, notably, Tokyo tops the list as the most
populous city in 2024, according to the World Population Review.*
*Here **are the world's 10 most populous cities in 2024. Tokyo and
Delhi are among the most populated cities in the world. Tokyo, with over 37
million residents, is the largest, while Delhi follows closely with around
30 million people. Both cities are bustling urban centres, representing
significant economic and cultural hubs in their respective regions.*
*As of 2024, the world's 10 most populated cities are:*
*1. **Tokyo, Japan: The world's largest city with a population of *
*37,115,035*
*2. **DELHI, India: The second-largest city with a population of **33,807,403
*
*3. **Shanghai, China: The third-largest city with a population of
29,867,918 *
*4. **Dhaka, Bangladesh: The fourth-largest city with a population of
23,935,652 *
*5. **SĂŁo Paulo, Brazil: South America's largest city with a population of
22 million *
*6. **Mexico City, Mexico: One of the largest cities in the Americas with a
population of over 21 million *
*7. **Cairo, Egypt: A cultural and economic hub with a population of
20,076,000 *
*8. **MUMBAI, India: A major city in India 21,673,149*
*9. **Beijing, China: A major city in China 22,189,082*
*10. **Osaka, Japan: A major city in Japan 18,967,459*
*The world's most populated cities are usually located in China and India,
which are the most densely populated countries**.*
*As measured by population, the world's major cities serve as
EPICENTRES of human civilization & cultural Diversity.*
*Why China got population control wrong; India got it right?????*
* Yes, India has many challenges ahead, but compared with
China, it has shown that **slow and steady can win the race.*
* Half a century ago, India and China stood at a similar point.
Their fertility rates – at 5.6 and 5.5 children per woman – were neck and
neck and way more than what is regarded as replacement level fertility of
2.1, at which the population stabilises. They also faced similar social and
developmental challenges as they sought to build their nations after
suffering the devastation of long colonial and imperial humiliations and
war.*
* However, their journeys towards population control
took **vastly
different routes**, shaped by **vastly different policies and
approaches. **Today,
as India’s population passes China’s **amid** a **mix of hope and
apprehensions about its implications, it’s important to recall those
journeys so societies and policymakers draw the right lessons from them.*
*Slow and steady India*
*India has been running its family planning programme
since 1952 and chose to travel on a path that was slow, steady and winding.
It provided reproductive health services, choices for couples on
contraception and the freedom to decide how many children they wanted.*
*The strategy wasn’t an obvious success right
away.* *The population growth rate increased initially, from 21.6 percent
in 1961 to 24.8 percent in 1971, and the population rose from 439 million
to 548 million, largely as the result of **increased life expectancy** — up
from **45 to 49 years **in that decade.*
* With the lifting of the emergency in 1977, India returned
to its old path focused on the provision of reproductive health and family
planning services as the means to a stable population.*
* Under India’s federal structure, state governments
set their own priorities with southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu
emphasising socioeconomic development and women’s empowerment.*
* India’s population growth rate began to decline from 1981,
a trend that continues. By 1991, India’s total fertility rate had declined
to 4, falling to 3.3 by 2001 and 2.5 in 2011. **Finally, in 2020, India
achieved replacement-level fertility, a significant milestone in its
demographic transition.*
*Fast but tumultuous China*
* As India was marking that momentous
occasion in 2020, **China was facing a population crisis very different
from the one it was staring at in the 1970s. Its fertility rate had dropped
so much that it was far below replacement levels at 1.3 and was forcing the
country into a series of policy about-turns in the hope of actually
increasing the birth rate as it faces the reality of an ageing society, a
shrinking workforce and a slowing economy.*
*But how did China go from one extreme to the other?*
*Even though post-1948 Communist China has invested in
infrastructure and health services in a major way, it was keen to achieve
lower fertility fast. ..**Very fast.* *In the 1970s, the country set new
age limits for marriage: Women needed to be at least 23 years old and men
25. Couples in the cities were encouraged to delay marriages even more. The
fertility rate plunged from 5.5 births per woman in 1**971 **to 2.7 births
in **1979.*
* But that wasn’t enough for China. So in 1979, it brought
in a one-child norm, **fining couples who gave birth to two or more
children.** Additionally, forced sterilisations and abortions were also
carried out in the **zeal** to achieve lower fertility.*
* The 1980s witnessed f**luctuating** fertility rates, mostly
hovering slightly above the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.
**However,
the early 1990s marked a turning point when fertility dropped below
replacement level, and it has continued to decline since then.*
* China has now realised how that policy has **backfired**, leading
to a **skewed sex ratio** of more men than women and a rapidly ageing
population.** It changed its policy in 2016 to let families have two
children and raised the bar to three in 2021.*
*However, the decades-long punitive restrictions have interfered so
fundamentally with the country’s demographics that the effects will not be
easy to mitigate — leave alone reverse. **In 2022, for the first time in
60 years, China’s population **shrunk — and by nearly a **million people.*
THE ROAD AHEAD
* Today, India and China are poised to encounter
very different demographic landscapes in the years ahead.*
*China is ageing rapidly**. The proportion of its population **that is
older than **65** has almost doubled since the turn of the century from **7
**percent to **13 **percent. **The country’s earlier restrictive policies
have also created another legacy, **a severe gender imbalance** with 1,123
male births per 1,000 female births in 2020. Faced with these challenges,
China will need innovative solutions to sustain economic growth and provide
for the needs of the elderly.*
* Conversely, India’s youthful population – half of which is younger
than 30 — offers tremendous opportunities for the country. Successive
governments have invested in girls education and women’s social and
economic empowerment instead of more draconian steps like the ones China
previously adopted.*
* India’s development-centric approach is in keeping
with the United Nations-organised International Conference on Population
and Development in Cairo in 1994, which called for making investments in
people’s lives and **discouraged coercion as a strategy to reduce
fertility. Several Indian states such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra
Pradesh achieved low fertility levels early, setting an example for others.
India has additionally targeted 146 high-fertility districts in seven
states with a series of initiatives from enhanced supplies of
contraceptives to campaigns on family planning.*
* Still, India has an unfinished agenda. As its population
continues to grow, **its large young population is available to work and
accelerate the country’s economic progress,* *but it needs to be **educated
and trained **to do so.*
*India needs to make sure that it adapts its education and
professional skills programmes to meet the needs of the job market. **In
the success of its youth lies India’s success.*
* India must also work towards leveraging its gender dividend,
defined as the increase in economic growth **that can be realised by
greater investments in **women** and **girl**s.** According to recent data,
China has among the world’s most **skewed sex ratios** at birth.*
*India’s sex ratio at birth was observed at 1,079 male births per 1,000
female births in 2020. Going forward, the country must invest in gender
equality initiatives that focus on changing patriarchal norms with an
invigorated focus on promoting secondary school education and female
workforce participation.*
*The country must also plan ahead for an **ageing population**, putting in
place **social security systems and geriatric care facilities. Lessons from
China underscore the need for an empowerment-based approach to population
stabilisation with the interests of the people at the centre.*
*Regards*
*V.Sridharan*
*Trichy*
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