I am making lots of notes on aspects of the very bad situation here in Italy in a TW. Won't publish most of that publicly because I am still unclear & don't have much yet to add to info on Web already.
BUT I do want to point to importance of testing which I discuss in chat channels using the TW. For instance, an experiment in North Italy where a small town of 3,300 under lockdown were all tested. https://www.livescience.com/small-italian-town-cuts-coronavirus-cases-testing.html https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-experiment-in-northern-italian-town-halts-all-new-infections-after-trial-11959587 The tests indicate that for every 10 people testing positive only 1 has symptoms. Indicating ... - penetration deep into societies is very likely (& actually evident in Italy); - many people have it and may recover hardly even knowing. Experience in Italy with aged populations is that many deaths are due to co-morbidity (exacerbating existing conditions). This is seriously distorting understanding the virus. A really BIG informational issue is the current international statistical aggregations calculates death rate within a framework largely based on comparing self-registering patient numbers with their death rate. These are getting *very* misleading. Italy for instance is quoted as having a death rate today of 43% in "Closed Cases". https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ That is nonsense. The comparative context is wrong. Wider random testing is essential to establish a "standard distribution" that mortality figures can be properly contextualised in. The limited few case studies we have indicate, without co-morbidity its more likely 1% or lower. Of course real life stats do need to account for how people actually are, not just pattern! BUT Good decision making needs Good information and here I think we don't fully know what is actually happening. FWIW, if you have interest in statistical reasoning this is pretty good: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ Best wishes TT -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TiddlyWiki" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tiddlywiki/2fca26cc-24cd-4f1a-a135-c5fddcdd04c4%40googlegroups.com.
