Hi

Generally it's the magnetic stuff (like disk drives, not much core memory in 
use anymore ...) that limits your upper temperature in a given installation. 
I've lost far more disks to high temperature issues than just about everything 
else combined. Number two on the list would be power supplies in my case. I 
suspect that lightning may be involved in some of those. 

Bob

On Nov 19, 2009, at 11:23 AM, Mark Spencer wrote:

> With regards to the MTBF for internet equipment the air temperature will play 
> a large role in determining the life span of equipment in data centers.    
> There is a lot of discussion in the IT world now about raising the typical 
> temperatures in data centers to save energy and the resulting decrease in 
> equipment life is generally accepted.   As IT equipment is often able to be 
> duplicated the consequences of a single piece of equipment failing may not be 
> very severe and it may be replaced under a maintenance contract in any event.
>  
> The equipment vendors typically specify operating temperatures that are 
> considerably higher than room temperature.
> 
>  
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message ----
> From: Bob Camp <[email protected]>
> To: Discussion of precise time and frequency measurement <[email protected]>
> Sent: Thu, November 19, 2009 4:56:27 AM
> Subject: Re: [time-nuts] Rubidium standard / MTBF
> 
> Hi
> 
> Just to put some numbers on this stuff:
> 
> A typical TV has a design goal of a > 5 year lifetime. A "premium" TV has a 
> design goal of a > 10 year lifetime. The theory is that if it doesn't last 
> that long, the customer will not buy another one from your brand.
> 
> Here in the US, most cell phones get swapped at the end of the two year 
> contract. It's a real good bet that they are designed to have a 2 year 
> lifespan at around the 90 to 95% level. Again, same theory, if it dies we 
> won't sell another one. I suspect the return rate also gets written into the 
> contracts with the carriers. 
> 
> There are a whole lot of normal use assumptions in their calculations. You 
> could debate the details for a *long* time.
> 
> The one that I find the most shocking is the very major internet hardware 
> company that considers 5 years of continuos use to be the goal. The logic - 
> we want them to swap out the gear regularly.... 
> 
> Bottom line - your TV may be more reliable than your internet connection ...
> 
> Crazy stuff
> 
> Bob
> 
> 
> On Nov 19, 2009, at 4:09 AM, Steve Rooke wrote:
> 
>> 2009/11/19 Mike S <[email protected]>:
>>> At 05:22 AM 11/18/2009, Steve Rooke wrote...
>>>> 
>>>> The point I should have made is that most quoted MTBF figures have a
>>>> reasonable bearing on the lifetime of the item,
>>> 
>>> But your point would then be almost perfectly incorrect. MTBFs are not meant
>>> to, nor do they, predict product lifetimes. They are measures/predictions of
>>> product reliability.
>> 
>> OK, I agree, the term is mean time between failures but the question
>> is what is the lifetime of something. This is the point we are
>> discussing and we really need to understand what this means. I'm not
>> going to quote a number of web searches, this means different things
>> to different people but this matter is not quite as black and while as
>> you think.
>> 
>> The lifetimes of any thing can be broadly split into two groups, there
>> are things that have a predetermined lifespan, like lifeforms, and
>> those that have no fixed lifespan. Let's look at the second broad
>> category, as this is what we are really talking about. So what is the
>> lifetime of an item in this category, is it related to MTBF or not.
>> Well, lets see, take some items, like consumer goods, these are
>> frequently thrown away when they fail as it is generally expensive to
>> fix them and newer models are more attractive. Now, do all consumers
>> wait till an item fails before they throw it away, well no, it depends
>> on the culture but I bet a large proportion of consumers probably do
>> wait till it fails. So in this case, quite a large section of what we
>> are talking about, the lifetime of the item is related to the time it
>> fails. Infant failures are obviously covered by initial warranty but
>> this seems to indicate that for a large sample size, the products
>> lifetime would be related to the MTBF. Agreed there are some
>> assumptions there, I expect the MTBF of a cellphone is a reasonable
>> amount but if you live in California and are seen with one over 6
>> months old you would die of embarrassment. So the lifespan of a
>> cellphone in California is significanly shorter than the MTBF, the
>> factor here is the MTBE (mean time before embarrassment).
>> 
>> No lets look at the corporate environment. In this environment,
>> failure of equipment can be very costly to a company so, if they have
>> any sense, they will arange to upgrade equipment well inside the time
>> that the item is expected to fail. Now, you may say that companies do
>> this well inside a shorter cycle than this as they can amortise the
>> cost off on tax release over a few years but I've worked in this
>> industry long enough to know that budgets don't work that way in the
>> real world and items get replaced when they fail. Again, with a large
>> sample size, this equates the lifetime of an item with the MTBF.
>> 
>> Now, there are those industries that do upgrade their things before
>> they fail and including those things that have actually failed and
>> been replaced, these things become available to people like us. Now,
>> for us, the MTBF is not the relevant factor here as we will repair the
>> thing, over and over again so it has a lifetime far in excess of it's
>> MTBF.
>> 
>> So, for the majority of cases in consumer an corporate usage, the
>> lifespan of any thing is related to the MTBF. For the smart set with
>> enough dosh, the lifespan of any thing is shorter than the MTBF, and
>> for the poor buggers like, at least, some of us, the lifespan is
>> greater then the MTBF. The point being that for the majority of cases,
>> the lifespan of any item is related to it's MTBF for equivalent sample
>> size.
>> 
>> Now, I know that MTBF is related to the failure rate but failures
>> determine the lifespan of any thing in the majority of cases.
>> 
>> The guys that put people into space have to really understand that
>> well. It's no good putting people into space for a 2 week mission in
>> equipment that has an expected MTBF of 1 week unless you wish the
>> mission to be only half completed given a sufficient sample size. It
>> also causes a lot of paper work and hot air to be blown which is
>> generally undesireable.
>> 
>>> "What does MTBF have to do with lifetime?  Nothing at all!" -
>>> http://www.ece.cmu.edu/~ganger/ece546.spring02/readings/mtbf.description
>>> 
>>> "MTBF represents the statistical approximation of how long a number of units
>>> should operate before a failure can be expected. It is expressed in hours
>>> and does not represent how long the unit will last." - Learn (or review) the
>>> difference between MTBF and lifetime, Control Engineering, 9/24/2008;
>>> http://www.controleng.com/article/312365-Learn_or_review_the_difference_between_MTBF_and_lifetime.php
>> 
>> But all this means on whether you consider the lifespan of any item to
>> be greater than the MTBF, IE. you don't mind the possibility of having
>> to fix it a few times, or if you throw it out as soon as it fails, IE
>> lifespan is related to MTBF. This, of course, does not cover instances
>> for when there is a planned obsolescence of the item, then the
>> lifespan is shorter than the MTBF but the swap out cycle has probably
>> been planned from the MTBF in the first place.
>> 
>>> I don't grant Wikipedia strong authority, but it is useful, and has this to
>>> say: "MTBF is commonly confused with a component's useful life, even though
>>> the two concepts are not related in any way. For example a battery may have
>>> a useful life of four hours, and an MTBF of 100,000 hours. These figures
>>> indicate that in a population of 100,000 batteries, there will be
>>> approximately one battery failure every hour during a single battery's
>>> four-hour life span."
>> 
>> This is an example of an item with a specific lifespan and therefore
>> MTBF is not related to a single items lifespan. In this case it
>> determines the probability of failure of any item. Comparing the
>> lifespan of items having a specific lifespan with their MTBF is like
>> comparing apples with oranges. This is a bad example of what we were
>> talking about. I agree that rb lamps do have a limited life but they
>> can be replaced as they are just a component that fails in the actual
>> whole item and this is just one failure in the terms of MTBF.
>> 
>>> There's much more out there, if you make the effort.
>> 
>> And there is much more in you if you logically think about it instead
>> of just accepting things on the web without really thinking what we
>> are relating to here.
>> 
>>>> I felt that an example based on humans was not really applicable to
>>>> the real world of electronic items but that is my own opinion and I'm
>>>> happy if you disagree with me.
>>> 
>>> MTBFs are not exclusive to electronics. Statistics, math and MTBFs are
>>> objective matters, so your opinion really doesn't make any difference.
>> 
>> Certainly statistics, math and MTBFs are objective and they have a
>> specific bearing on this matter. Along with this, you need to add
>> policy, as to how the entity using an item sees about its lifetime
>> related to those objectives, IE. they are related. The lifetime of
>> anything is a policy decision based on the items failure rate.
>> 
>> Steve
>> -- 
>> Steve Rooke - ZL3TUV & G8KVD
>> A man with one clock knows what time it is;
>> A man with two clocks is never quite sure.
>> 
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