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-----Original
Message----- Miguel Roig wrote: We've had
threads before about 'students getting worse' and those discussion have
sometimes led me to question the accuracy of faculty impressions of the
academic readiness of students. However, annual 'report cards' of our
nation's schools have not been favorable for years and verify our
perceptions. In fact, a just-published report by the Manhattan Institute (http://www.manhattan-institute.org/ewp_03.pdf)
paints a pretty grim picture of public high school education. For
example, consider the following statistic revealed by the Manhattan report:
"Only 70%
of all students in public high schools graduate, and only 32% of all students
leave high school qualified to attend four-year colleges." I don't
know what the exact figures are, but I imagine that the 32% probably translates
to hundreds of thousands of students. One also wonders how much better
some private high schools really are. Thanks,
Miguel, for the link to the study. I am always looking for primary sources to
give my students practice in critical thinking about research. For example, on
this very issue, I have had students in the past read opposing reports on our
educational system and try to ascertain which is closer to the correct picture.
The two reports, while not primary sources, do provide some practice in
critical thinking. The sources are: The Other Crisis in American Education by by Daniel J.
Singal at: http://www.theatlantic.com/election/connection/educatio/singalf.htm
and The Near-Myth of Our Failing Schools by Peter Schrag at: http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/97oct/fail.htm.
As
to practicing my critical thinking on the Manhattan Institute study, the first
point is that nothing said about today’s students alone can be taken as
evidence that today’s students are doing worse than during some previous golden
age. Although 70% graduation and 32% qualified for college doesn’t look good, without
a comparison we can’t say that they are worse than before. When reading such an
article, I always go to the Method section first because we all know that Satan
is in the specifics. And this one does have some specifics. It is a great
reminder to us that sometimes it is not as easy as we might imagine to get the
numbers we use in an analysis. How hard could it be to get graduation rates?
Pretty difficult as it turns out. I leave the details for you to slog through
at the link Miguel provided. The authors go on to describe three screens they use to determine
the percentage of students who leave high school qualified to attend four-year
colleges. The first is HS graduation rate, the second is a transcript screen
and the third is a literacy screen. In the transcript screen, they exclude
anyone who hasn’t taken, in high school, “four years of English, three years of
math, and two years each of natural science, social science, and foreign language.”
The literacy screen excludes the percentage of those who don’t achieve a basic
level on the NAEP reading test. “Finally,
we apply all three screens by multiplying the percentage of students who
graduate high school by the percentage of graduates who pass the transcript screen
by the number of transcript-ready graduates who pass the test score screen.”
So, with a 70% graduation rate, if 70% take the appropriate curriculum and 70% of
those who take the appropriate curriculum pass the literacy test, multiplying
them together would give you 34% ready for college. Correct me if I’m wrong,
but using the multiplication rule there assumes that all three of those screens
are independent measures of college readiness. I seriously doubt that but maybe
I am missing something. One other thing just smells to me but I have nothing to confirm it
one way or another. The Executive Summary says, “Graduation
rates in the Northeast (73%) and Midwest (77%) were higher than the overall
national figure, while graduation rates in the South (65%) and West (69%) were
lower than the national figure. The Northeast and the Midwest had the same
college readiness rate as the nation overall (32%) while the South had a higher
rate (38%) and the West had a lower rate (25%).” So the South has the lowest
graduation rate and the highest college readiness rate. I live here in Arkansas
and education is not one of the strengths of this region. Mississippi is last
in most education-related rankings and Arkansas is often number 49. Other
southern states are also low. I can easily believe that we have the lowest
graduation rate of any region but I don’t understand how that translates into
the highest college readiness rating, especially since one-third of the formula
for college readiness is based on HS graduation. That tells me we must have
higher percentages of high schools requiring the specified curriculum and/or
higher literacy rates than the rest of the nation. That seems unlikely. I haven’t
looked for a detailed explanation of this in the paper (maybe I will look when
I have more time) but if any of you have any other ideas, I would like to hear
it. And to all you PowerPoint haters out there, guess who paid for this
report? That’s right: Bill and Melinda. Thanks again Miguel for another
opportunity to exercise my critical thinking (and for my students to practice
it).
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