Hey, All --
This is horrible, but I'm going to post without knowing my sources.
It's also not directly relevant to the discussion, but I'm curious:
I recall reading that the "obesity epidemic" is not that more people are
larger (it's still about a third), it's that those who are large are
getting even larger.
Does anyone else remember reading about this?
m
--
Marc Carter
Baker University Department of Psychology
Assistant Professor, Itinerant Scientist,
Inveterate Skeptic, Former Surfer.
---
The test of our progress is not whether we add more
to the abundance of those who have much;
it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.
----- Franklin Roosevelt
-----Original Message-----
From: Stephen Black [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2004 10:49 AM
To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences
Subject: obesity and health: stats to ponder
I said, in reference to the commonplace claim that we're experiencing an
"epidemic of obesity":
> Then how come, between 1970 and 2000, "[US] National vital statistics
> data indicate that the age-adjusted mortality from coronary heart
> disease declined 58%...while age-adjusted mortality from stroke
> declined 61.5%...during the same period. These trends have been
> reported among men and women, and blacks and whites".
Chris Green suggested that the decline may be due to improved methods
for treating both disorders, with the result that while fewer die, more
linger on in a severely-disabled state. A worthy speculation, but not a
happy thought. And I thought I was bringing good news.
But my interest in posting was to jog people's perceptions, not to
identify the cause of the decline. For example, without citing my stats,
try this multiple-choice question out on friends, family, and
colleagues:
**************************
We've all heard of the "epidemic of obesity" that afflicts modern
society, and the hazards it presents for health. In the light of this
concern, how has the rate of people dying of heart disease changed over
the past 30 years?
a) increased by 60%
b) increased by 30%
c) no change
d) decreased by 30%
e) decreased by 60%
*********************************
How many people do you think will choose (e) [the correct answer]?
As for speculations on the cause of the decrease in mortality, I agree
that there have been medical advances which keep people alive who
otherwise would have bought the farm. But I'm hard-pressed to believe
that these advances are so widely applied and so extraordinarily
effective that they not only slow our otherwise inexorable rush to
alimentary suicide but actually reverse it by 60%.
Also, the study I cited in my last post (Ergin et al, AMJ 2004) reported
that the decline between their two cohorts (1971-82 vs 82-
92) was in incidence of cardiovascular disease (21% lower) as well as
in mortality (31% lower). So there doesn't appear to be evidence for the
living-death hypothesis. Not only do fewer people die, but there's less
disease around. As Annette just said, perhaps that's because people are
taking better care of themselves (prevention).
Yes, but doesn't that contradict the claim that we're instead eating
ourselves into an early grave?
On the other hand, prophet of doom Jean-Marc could well be correct that
the full effect of the epidemic lies in the future. Yes, but I think
that most believe it's already here.
(Personally, I prefer mortality statistics, not because of my death
instinct, but because they're reliable. Death is so final, and death due
to cardiovascular disease is a statistic we can have confidence in;
diagnosing disease in the living less so.)
Stephen
_________________________________________________
Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. tel: (819) 822-9600 ext 2470
Department of Psychology fax: (819) 822-9661
Bishop's University e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Lennoxville, QC J1M 1Z7
Canada
Dept web page at http://www.ubishops.ca/ccc/div/soc/psy
TIPS discussion list for psychology teachers at
http://faculty.frostburg.edu/psyc/southerly/tips/index.htm
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