I remember when I was in grad school (circa 1965) my current adviser
(Ed Walker, a student of Ken Spence) saying that the one thing you
know about a psychological theory is that it's wrong.
My feeling was that he had picked it up from Spence; he certainly
didn't present it as original.
It obviously goes way back!
At 9:57 AM -0500 3/28/06, Mike Palij wrote:
On Mon, 27 Mar 2006 12:30:01 -0800, Horton, Joseph J. wrote:
I can come close:
"Since all models are wrong the scientist must be alert to what
is importantly wrong." (p. 792)
Box, G. E. P. (1976). Science and Statistics. Journal of the
American Statistical Association, 71, 791-799.
Although this is close, a quick search of several databases
shows that the most likely source is:
Box, G.E.P., Robustness in the strategy of scientific model
building, in Robustness in Statistics, R.L. Launer and G.N.
Wilkinson, Editors. 1979, Academic Press: New York.
I found the above reference in a discussion on this website:
http://www.anecdote.com.au/archives/2006/01/all_models_are.html
I can't find an electronic version of this paper but another
search found the quote and the Box (1979) ref in the
following article which is available online if one has access
to Sage journals:
Weakliem, D.L. (2004). Introduction to the Special Issue on
Model Selection. Sociological Methods & Research, vol. 33,
no. 2, pp. 167-187, November 2004
For people involved in stat/math model development, the
entire issue is pretty interesting. One citation in the Weakliem
paper that caught my eye is:
Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X. 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million
Regressions." American Economic Review (Papers and
Proceedings) 87:178-83.
--
The best argument against Intelligent Design is that fact that
people believe in it.
* PAUL K. BRANDON [EMAIL PROTECTED] *
* Psychology Dept Minnesota State University *
* 23 Armstrong Hall, Mankato, MN 56001 ph 507-389-6217 *
* http://krypton.mnsu.edu/~pkbrando/ *
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