Susan,

I'd recommend Dawes' Robust beauty of improper linear models or his article
in Science 
as a warning against intuitive decision making 

Dawes, R.M. (1979). The robust beauty of improper linear models. _American
Psychologist, 34_, 571-582.

Dawes, R.M., Faust, D. & Meehl, P.E. (1989). Clinical versus actuarial
judgement. _Science, 24(3)_, 1668-1674.


Regards,
Rainer

Dr. Rainer Scheuchenpflug
Lehrstuhl für Psychologie III
Röntgenring 11
97070 Würzburg
Germany
Tel:   0931-312185
Fax:   0931-312616
Mail:  [EMAIL PROTECTED]





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